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发表于 2010-10-18 11:45 AM
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Apple lovers ... here is a recap what pros think of it ...
Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray: The magnitude of upside will be limited due to supply constraints we observed throughout the quarter on the iPhone and iPad. On the earnings call, we expect management to explain that demand outstripped supply, so even if there is not substantial unit upside, the results will still be a positive for the stock, because investors will know the reported numbers do not reflect true demand. Because of strong demand and expected backlog heading into the Dec. quarter, we believe Apple will guide revenue more optimistically than typical guides.
Maynard Um, UBS: Apple mgmt is known for providing conservative future outlooks. However, we would note that guidance for FY4Q10 was uncharacteristically more aggressive than the street had anticipated (4Q rev guidance was $1bn higher than street estimates). With cont’d momentum in all product lines as well as easing supply constraints for both iPhone & iPad, we see the potential for Apple to surprise to the upside on guidance again.
Matthew Hoffman, Cowen and Company: The open question is how much results have to beat by to keep the stock’s momentum going. We believe investors would be happy with: (1) [fiscal fourth quarter] iPad sales above our 5.3 million estimate, (2) [fiscal fourth quarter] gross margins exceeding our 38.1% forecast (~90 [basis points] dilution [quarter-over-quarter], comfortably ahead of the company’s 35% guidance), (3) [fiscal fourth quarter] iPhone unit shipments that beat our 13.1 million unit forecast and (4) a top-line outlook which exceeds $22.3 [billion] [fiscal first quarter 2011] consensus by ~5%.
Colin Gillis, BGC: Given the lofty expectations for results tied to Apple’s history of exceeding expectations – shares may be weak on the earnings news if results are inline or even modestly exceed estimates. We point out that Apple issued what appeared to us as a robust guidance for this quarter – a deviation from its historical pattern of providing a conservative outlook. Plus – we estimate that there is a drag to earnings of $0.10 from providing free cases for new iPhones.
Richard Gardner, Citigroup: “Contract prices on NAND flash, flat panels and DRAM declined 14%, 15% and 5%, respectively, between Apr/May and Jul/Aug. These declines should boost gross margin by approximately 100 [basis points] sequentially during [fiscal fourth quarter 2010], suggesting potential for gross margin well above our current est and consensus of 37.9-38.1%. Dollar/Euro [foreign exchange] was also favorable.” |
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狗仔卡
发表于 2010-10-18 11:27 AM
check the chart first......