Using 缠论 reading current market

gucci

If market can't break up 1389.77 tonight, most likely it topped with 趋势背驰?

austinjoe

gucci 发表于 2012-11-20 08:50 PM
If market can't break up 1389.77 tonight, most likely it topped with 趋势背驰?

趋势背驰 requires a 3rd buy point on 2nd 中枢 which is not show up yet. It's still 中枢震荡, but there is a chance that 2 3rd sell point to end the 2nd 中枢 and market start heading south again.

gucci

austinjoe 发表于 2012-11-20 10:23 PM
趋势背驰 requires a 3rd buy point on 2nd 中枢 which is not show up yet. It's still 中枢震荡, but t ...

Thanks for comments.

Can we take the point of 1379.71 as 3rd Buy point here and treat the point of 1389.77 as the starting point of the down leg? Or we have to wait for breaking down 1377.04 to confirm 趋势背驰?

austinjoe

gucci 发表于 2012-11-20 09:40 PM
Thanks for comments.

Can we take the point of 1379.71 as 3rd Buy point here and treat the poi ...

1379.71 is the 3rd Buy point -- but it's the 1st 1F中枢. 1379.71 itself is part of the 2nd 1F中枢, we need to see the end of this 2nd 1F中枢, either 3rd buy -- spx break up or 3rd sell -- spx break down. We could only follow the market rather try to predict it.

gucci

Now I see what you mean. Thanks for shining the light on it.

austinjoe

12/127/2012, SPX formed 2nd 5F中枢 {1397.68 [1399.0, 1408.67] 1409.16} that is not overlapped with 1st one {1377.04 [1388.95, 1389.77] 1391.25}. Bull must show strength to form a 3rd buy on this 2nd 5F中枢 and rise violently to void trend divergency, otherwise this 5F bounce up is doomed and Bear will take south bound ride -- target 132x area.

ethanlinear

austinjoe

12/28/2012, SPX continue 中枢震荡 between 2 5F中枢. Morning gap down dive hit 1385 which is SMA200. Be careful on a megaphone is forming with top line leveled up, the violent break up / down will show up.

littletiger

austinjoe 发表于 2012-11-28 05:02 PM
12/28/2012, SPX continue 中枢震荡 between 2 5F中枢. Morning gap down dive hit 1385 which is SMA200.  ...

is today's dip a 3rd buy ?

wangcai

这里如果折腾出个30分钟中枢就好玩了，那就说明还有涨的空间。我的空仓啊

austinjoe

littletiger 发表于 2012-11-28 05:26 PM
is today's dip a 3rd buy ?

Nop. The morning low spx 1385 hit inside 1st 5F中枢, so the chance for 2  5F中枢 up trend is void. It's still 5F中枢震荡. SPX gap up -- as long as it's < 1424, it would be a short entry point.

austinjoe

wangcai 发表于 2012-11-28 09:17 PM
这里如果折腾出个30分钟中枢就好玩了，那就说明还有涨的空间。我的空仓啊

如果折腾出个30分钟中枢 ==> this is not absolutely bad for bear. It could be a + A + b, a is 5F from 1471 to 1343, A is 30F from 1343 to ??? (142x area), then b could either up or down. Bull wants up while bear favor down.

wangcai

第三个5分钟走势就要结束了，该不该空呢？

austinjoe

wangcai 发表于 2012-11-29 03:43 PM
第三个5分钟走势就要结束了，该不该空呢？

IMHO. the 3rd 5F走势 has not formed up yet, it's still 1F走势 from 11/28/2012 low spx 1385. Getting closer to 1424 which could be the short entry.

wangcai

是的，明天可能是好的加空点。最近空仓割了不少肉，怕了

austinjoe

12/29/2012, SPX continue 5F中枢震荡. Boring day.

austinjoe

11/30/29. SPX generated a 3rd bull poin ton 5F中枢 {1397.68 [1399.0, 1408.67] 1409.16} , but bull shows no strength here. In the process of forming a new 5F中枢 in 1408 -- 1418 area now. Once this 5F中枢 formed up, we can compare spx rise from 1343 to 1409 with the rise from 1385 to find a short entry.

wangcai

又做了个5分钟中枢，我认为从1343上来作了个5分钟趋势， 暂时还没有升级为30分钟。这里最强走势是下个星期做第三个5分钟中枢，其次今天的5分钟中枢升级为30中枢后继续上攻。最弱的就是5分钟反弹结束，继续30分钟下跌

wangcai

wangcai 发表于 2012-11-30 05:16 PM
又做了个5分钟中枢，我认为从1343上来作了个5分钟趋势， 暂时还没有升级为30分钟。这里最强走势是下个星期做 ...

仔细画了一下走势图，发现其实是个5分钟盘整走势。如果今天盘末5分三买成立的话，盘面实际上很bullish。周一应该是很暴力那种，就是不知道向上还是向下
蓝线是一分钟走势类型

austinjoe

12/05/2012 close, spx continue 5F中枢震荡 until it could form a 3rd buy above 1420 or 3rd sell bellow 1412.