D兄,C和GS今天被降级,你认为会对近期的大盘有不好的影响吗,是很不好的signal?
actionverte 发表于 2011-3-4 13:24 
有,这是 Volker's Rule 的必然结果。我以前提过不(是最)看好金融板块。BLK可能是个例外,因为别的银行都不能为所欲为地 trade 了,那BLK就可能更得志了。
金融占SPX的1/4左右,金融有压力,大盘也脱不了干系。
但是目前最大的风险还是在于石油价。这个问题其实是暂时的。People will get used to it ($200 oil), eventually. And the monetary inflation reality will kick in to catch up with the rising cost of living in the near future. Just like gas used to be 10c / gal, and by that standard the world should have already ended at current prices. But look back to see what kind of path we have gone through, GDP wise, SPX wise, personal income wise, and real estate wise. (Everything mentioned were $ denominated).
So over all, short-term, too risky to be fully invested. But I'm not at all bearish for the next few weeks. I won't out right short unless I see something new. |