04/21/2010 白天灌水

我是谁

熊灌水都没力气啦？！
QuickHand 发表于 2010-4-21 13:16

    i just got back,  oops missed the short entrance

blackrock

Pullback target?
Cobra 发表于 2010-4-21 12:48

reached. waiting for lower low

slcgh

天大旱，民不聊生。
胡同大旱，牛熊两难！

abaqus

zeebra

OEX P/C ratio 1.86 - Market sentiment is bearish at this moment
Price is the king, market sentiment is Queen, who controls who?

Alchemist

熊灌水都没力气啦？！
QuickHand 发表于 2010-4-21 13:16

   天天涨，早就涨疲劳了。
   熊？熊毛被燎，熊胆被抽，哪来的力气？
   全靠时不时批张牛皮活到今天。

weigoodone01

OEX P/C ratio 1.86 - Market sentiment is bearish at this moment
Price is the king, market sentiment ...
zeebra 发表于 2010-4-21 13:22

    So will this mean up ahead until everyone is bullish, then the real down side begins?

wyemlyy

转贴一个
发信人: alwaysknow (繁华如梦), 信区: Living
标  题: 美国房市谁骗了谁？(ZT)
发信站: BBS 未名空间站 (Wed Apr 21 10:50:33 2010, 美东)

那天W打来电话：有个short sale的房子条件不错，地点好，应该很容易出租，去看一
下？

W是我们的房地产经纪，合作过一段时间了，很清楚我们对房子的选择条件。按着他给
的信息到网上查了一下，果然很理想：06年盖的房子，应该还很新，学区非常好，交通
也方便，闹中取静的小区，还是Gated community。

后来才知道，这小区竟有好几栋房子在short sale，其中有两栋是我们喜欢的户型。第
一栋的房主是个单身汉，离了婚的越南人，还是个房地产经纪，和W认识。看房时他家
车库门开着，我们一眼就看见他的车：一辆崭新的白色宝马，好漂亮。从车库门进去便
是房子的底层，显然主人把它当作游艺室，60寸LCD电视摆在很显眼的位置。上了楼，
厨房客厅饭厅装修得非常漂亮，客厅又有一台60寸LCD电视。再上楼，两间卧室一间办
公室，用的都是很豪华的家具，主卧室还有一台LCD电视。我们不禁瞠目，这家伙这么
有钱，为什么还要short sale？

第二栋房子内部的装修也很漂亮，可没一件像样的家具，有两个房间几乎是空的，卧室
里只有一张床垫摆在地中央，旁边胡乱堆了些衣物。房主不知是哪来的华人，客厅里摆
着祖先的照片灵位，灵牌上写着繁体中文字。这家显然不富裕，大概这些年竭尽全力供
房子，直到供不起。

两个房子都给了offer，short sale不好做，哪个做得成就要哪个。

很快得到越南人的回音，银行接受了我们的offer，开始一步步往前走，一大堆表格要
我们签字。原来这个越南人有两份贷款，一个贷了80%的房价，另一个贷了20%。敢情人
家一分钱down payment都没付，就住上了新房子。06年是我们这个地区房价最高点，这
房子现在的价钱比那时低了30%，越南人把债务全推给银行，自己溜之大吉。这还不算
，人家还想赚点钱: 那冰箱洗衣机烘干机不包括在房子之内，你们想要就另给我一千五
。我和老公一起感叹：碰上个精明的，这家伙可真能算计。

表格签了一张又一张，终于接到W通知：银行通过了short sale的全部手续，准备
closing。还没等我们反应过来，事情又起了变化，越南人告诉我们：我还欠那第二家
贷款银行五万多的home equity, 他们非让我还上才放过我。我要是有五万多现金，还
会short sale吗？我跟银行说，我现在唯一能拿得出来的就是冰箱洗衣机烘干机。你们
能不能帮帮我？我身体不好，血压高，心脏病，真受不了了。

这home equity我可知道，当初我们申请贷款时，也得了个home equity的账户，我问那
管贷款的，这是什么，我没申请这玩意啊。人家说，你的贷款利率很低，必须配这个，
你拿去花吧，买了房子，自然要添些家具什么的。我弄了半天才明白，这是以房子做抵
押的高利贷，我哪敢花。看来这越南人不但房子首付一分钱没付，还弄了个home
equity大花特花，那些电视家具还有汽车说不定就是用这钱买的，现在房子卖了，银行
自然要他付账，这小子一分钱不付，要赖账了。

我告诉W，我可不想替这家伙还债，五万多呢。W说，当然不用还这么多，给五千试试，
反正我们事先打算了五千元的回旋余地，再要求他把冰箱洗衣机烘干机留下来，看银行
怎么说。

我将信将疑签下最后一份文件，银行居然同意了。唉，银行可是亏大了。

Closing那天，我们提前到了律师事务所，那越南人也到了，高高大大很健壮的一个。
我们一边闲聊，一边等W。越南人很健谈：short sale手续麻烦得要命，你们一定不知
道，在你们看房子之前，我花了十七个月跟银行谈判，填了无数的表格，他们开始就是
不同意short sale，我找白宫写了信，还找两位议员写了信，能想到的路数都试过了，
最后他们才同意，要不你们哪能这么顺利买到房子。

我们问：short sale对卖主的信誉有什么影响呢？

越南人很得意：没有影响，只要文件上注明银行同意这房价就行。这就是short sale和
foreclosure 的区别，银行有的是钱，他们才不在乎，你看你们最后出的那五千，就把
我五万多的债顶了，很多人不知道能这么干。

在会议室，律师带着我们签署各种文件，越南人一边签一边和W聊天：我在办一个non-
profit机构，准备设个网站，教大家做short sale。现在房价跌得这么低，许多人的贷
款额高于房价，可大多数人不知道银行的钱可以不还，一直到还不起破产为止。我会把
我的经验教给大家。

我的天，这家伙自己占了便宜还不够，竟想在网上吹嘘，还美其名曰non-profit…

告别时，越南人很热情地和我们握手：房子有什么问题找我。

W问：房子卖了，你住哪？

越南人说：我先在朋友家住几天，过些日子会去Buckhead买房子。

这话又一次让我们震惊：Buckhead，那边的房子比我们这要贵许多，这小子难道要继续
骗？

事后和朋友谈起这次买房经历，朋友开玩笑说：前几年的房市就是个大骗局，这越南人
就是个骗子，而那家华人大概是上当受骗的。

仔细想想，这越南人是骗了银行，可银行那时为什么不分青红皂白，见人就发钱？还不
是想让大家都上钩，多多借贷，多多还钱。前几年银行赚钱无数，每家银行的头头脑脑
都腰包鼓鼓。而越南人这样的，靠着房子实实在在奢华了一番，连象那家华人那样的穷
人也住了几年新房子。实际上那几年炒房的人不少，虽然不是骗子，可都想靠房子发横
财，难免自欺欺人。现在房市的泡泡灭了，经济也垮了，大多数人接受了教训，少数骗
子们想再行骗，估计也不那么容易

xiaochong

先试试水，will short MS @32.15 if it can be reached, not follow
xiaochong 发表于 2010-4-21 11:58

    will cover my ms short around 31.76 if it can be reached, and reshort later

weigoodone01

we may need another big gap up (exhaution gap) to begin the down side! On that day, bears bend over and bulls bend over and MM starts real selling!

dingdingdang

triangle formed?

Cobra, There are a lot index puts bought by MM or sold by MM? How to interpret these CBOE data?

Thanks.

mikeqc

回复 167# Cobra

Cobra, did you trade accordingly?  If not, why?

Cobra

triangle formed?

Cobra, There are a lot index puts bought by MM or sold by MM? How to interpret  ...
dingdingdang 发表于 2010-4-21 13:26

我不管，只看非常extreme的值出现后有啥规律。没规律，就算了，有规律就收藏。

oda

Cobra

回复  Cobra

Cobra, did you trade accordingly?  If not, why?
mikeqc 发表于 2010-4-21 13:27

    No. No why, sometimes it works sometimes it doesn't so cannot rely on it unless you have some other reason. Today's case might be tradeable.

always

ZT

E*TRADE Financial Corp. (ETFC) Call Buying Nears an Annual Peak Ahead of Earnings

E*TRADE Financial Corp. (ETFC) is slated to release its quarterly report after the close this afternoon, according to this morning's earnings calendar. Wall Street is expecting a loss of 3 cents per share, a considerable improvement over the company's loss of 41 cents per share in the same quarter last year. Historically, ETFC has bested these expectations twice, matched once, and missed once during the prior four reporting periods.

Options traders, however, may have set the bar considerably higher. Specifically, data from the International Securities Exchange (ISE) and Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) indicate that a whopping 72 calls have been bought to open for every one put purchased during the prior two weeks. The current ISE/CBOE 10-day call/put volume ratio of 72.26 falls just two percentage points shy of an annual peak.

This trend toward calls is holding firm in today's activity, as only about 10 puts have changed hands, compared to about 4,400 calls. The most active strike is the May 2 strike, where 2,089 calls have crossed the tape so far. That said, traders should take this wealth of call activity with a grain of salt. With ETFC trading near $1.80 per share, there is little profit to be made by trading puts, given that there is very little room below the shares.

Technically, ETFC has been range bound for the better part of the past several months, with the shares ping-ponging between support near $1.50 and resistance in the $1.80-$1.90 area. What's more, additional call-related resistance could manifest at $2, given the almost 26,000 contracts residing at this strike in the May options series.

zeebra

So will this mean up ahead until everyone is bullish, then the real down side begins?
weigoodone01 发表于 2010-4-21 13:24

No!
The Equity and Total Put/Call Ratios are contrarian indicators.  These traders tend to be wrong at turning points and are the "dumb money"
The OEX (S&P 100) Put/Call Ratio is Not a contrarian indicator.  Traders buying these options tend to be correct and are considered the "smart money".

mikeqc

No. No why, sometimes it works sometimes it doesn't so cannot rely on it unless you have s ...
Cobra 发表于 2010-4-21 13:32

Many thanks.  I did because 2 out 3 signals in my frog system saying short.  While I was waiting for the 3rd signal, I saw your post...           
OK, I will not take this kind of risks anymore.

QuickHand

天旱， 水少， 速灌。。。

我是谁

No!
The Equity and Total Put/Call Ratios are contrarian indicators.  These traders tend to be ...
zeebra 发表于 2010-4-21 13:34

    thx, learning, getting smarter