SPX Notes 2009

oldfat

Tomorrow likely another Doji or small bar candle (e.g., spinning top) around EMA(34).
The day after tomorrow retrace to EMA(13), then 830--840 area will be retested.
We will see what happens at that ...
bayliner1979 发表于 2009-2-9 19:22

It is possible, let's wait and see.

bucks

thanks, Bay

qiqiapr

smith, 今天call 和put同时减少了不少，可以怎么解释

Maylin

Thanks very much!!!  

torontonian

Thanks!!!!!!

jilier

Future starts to drop on 'bad bank' news. Let us see what happens tomorrow.

bayliner1979

复杂系统的中间状态无法解释。
不过12/9/2008相对12/8/2008而言，同样是call,put减少，CPC也减小。
今天和12/9/2008市场状态相似。

明天应该到EMA(34)线的下面若干点处晃一晃了。

smith, 今天call 和put同时减少了不少，可以怎么解释
qiqiapr 发表于 2009-2-9 21:39

benmao

thanks bay

小咪

169# bayliner1979 10" />10" />8" />8" />谢谢

bayliner1979

短期牛市走法已经break了，因此选择短期熊市走法就是了。
可能有人会说http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s154170446]&disp=P symmetrical triangle下沿还没有肉眼看得见的突破，咋就不能到底上行了？
Yeah, 明天会反弹去EMA(13)=847左右的，如果开盘跌尾盘涨那就是hammer，如果开盘反弹到EMA(13)尾盘跌就是inverted hammer。
但是，$NYADV lower low, 会有收盘新低的，in few days symmetrical triangle必然向下break。
And, most important of all, ooooops, $CPCE breaks out.http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s125228382]&disp=P

今天的预测也对也不对：确实和12/9,12/10时的复杂走法较像，但走了个Doji，而不是shooting star(不过candlestick是可以组合的，doji + red marubozu就是shooting star，见BlendingCandlesticks http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:introduction_to_cand)
这是短期牛市走法，即便是这样，pullback to 840也是expected.
如果是短期熊市走法，仍然认为780还是要去的。因为看了一下图，在整个长期熊市期间，过低的CPC确实后面都尾随大跌，包括熊市后期在内(即便假设现在已经是熊市后期,which I don't believe)。按Cobra的说法，这叫payback of low CPC。


bayliner1979 发表于 2009-2-9 18:58

yang9753

Nice. Let us wait and see.

Like your comments and the girls.

新低手

QQQ

短期牛市走法已经break了，因此选择短期熊市走法就是了。
可能有人会说http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s154170446]&disp=P symmetrical triangle下沿还没有肉眼看得 ...bayliner1979 发表于 2009-2-10 16:53

Bay, IF SPX does go touch 847, then the sitiation needs a re-evaluation. SPX has Fib and Pivot resistance at 840.

Amy999

thanks bay and QQQ, that was great call!

NumberRules

短期牛市走法已经break了，因此选择短期熊市走法就是了。
可能有人会说http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s154170446]&disp=P symmetrical triangle下沿还没有肉眼看得 ...
bayliner1979 发表于 2009-2-10 16:53

good call~

xiaoyaoxl

190# bayliner1979

bay，CPCE的数值不对，CBOE上的是0.75

stockchart上的CPCE 数值总是偏高直到晚上才会改正

undeadrogue

小舒淇？流口水啊。。。

28o breaking out is very bearish.

bayliner1979

190# bayliner1979


bay，CPCE的数值不对，CBOE上的是0.75

stockchart上的CPCE 数值总是偏高直到晚上才会改正
xiaoyaoxl 发表于 2009-2-10 17:48

You are right.  I thought stockcharts.com has fixed the problem recently, but not.

改正：明天会反弹去EMA(13)=847左右的，如果开盘跌尾盘涨那就是hammer，如果开盘反弹到EMA(13)尾盘跌就是inverted hammer。
但是，$NYADV lower low, 会有收盘新低的，in few days symmetrical triangle必然会向下break。是不是fake break到时再看。

Cobra

You are right.  I thought stockcharts.com has fixed the problem recently, but not.

改正：明天会反弹去EMA(13)=847左右的，如果开盘跌尾盘涨那就是hammer，如果开盘反弹到EMA(13)尾盘跌就是inverte ...
bayliner1979 发表于 2009-2-10 18:05

NND，该打，俺那么大的黑字提醒你，你都没看到！

bayliner1979

I know the problem for a long long time.
stockcharts use $CPC for $CPCE before close of extended hours.
Perhaps starting from last week, $CPC and $CPCE go different during the market hours and extended hours, so I took for granted that they have fixed the problem.   But not, right now I don't know what value they are using for $CPCE during the market hours and extended hours.

NND，该打，俺那么大的黑字提醒你，你都没看到！
Cobra 发表于 2009-2-10 18:08