Dumb money vs. smart money

csw2002

MF data finally updated: I have a very bad piece of news for bulls : SH saw an outflow of 41.7 millions. While it's very bullish with total inflow exceeding 350 millions over the last 3 weeks, this is going to be short term bearish though. SDS saw 27.8 millions inflow and SPXU is still flat. Coupled with neutral final OEX reading and very bearish cash close OEX PCR, it looks as though we need to retest the low first.

lilili

many thanks

acoust

csw2002

OEX PCR final is 1.43 neutral. No change to SH, SDS or SPXU today

lanz

HappyMoney

csw2002

OEX PCR final closed at 1.17 neutral. There is no change to SH and SPXU with SDS seeing an inflow to the tune of 25.1 millions. Despite the 50 handle rally, there doesn't appear to be much optimism in dumb short SH. I think the rally will have more legs before SH starts to see substantial outflow.

cc2265

csw2002

today's MF is massive, SPXU saw 39.6 millions inflow, SDS saw 65.4 millions inflow and a massive 307.4 millions inflow into SH. OEX pcr final today at 1.49 neutral - but there is a warning sign that oex oi pcr today closed at 2.18 - first time over 2 for a while now.

wreckbeach

huge down leg is coming.

csw2002

11.1 mil inflow into sh, 39.6 mil inflow into sds, 28.5 mil outflow from spxu. OEX PCR final is 0.68 bullish - however OEX PCR at close was a very bearish 2.8. I tend to view OEX Final PCR a bit suspect when it doesn't agree with OEX PCR at cash close. What's more worrying is that OEX OI PCR continues to stay above 2.

austinjoe

csw2002 发表于 2016-2-2 10:38 PM
11.1 mil inflow into sh, 39.6 mil inflow into sds, 28.5 mil outflow from spxu. OEX PCR final is 0.68 ...

Thanks for sharing. Looks SmartM are positioned for the market heading low in next few days.

csw2002

SH saw no change today. SDS saw 25.7 millions inflow. SPXU saw another 7.8 millions outflow. OEX pcr final closed at 1.32 and oex pcr cash closed at 1.2. Hence both are neutral.

csw2002

Oex pcr on cash close at extremely bearish 10.8 and Oex pcr final is also a very bearish 2.83. Another 22.1 millions inflow into SH, 16.7 millions inflow into SDS , no change to SPXU. Both smart and dumb money are bearish. I am not sure what the implication is. On the other hand, I have a couple of other intermediate term signals that argue for a bottom much like Mar 2009 (when both dumb and smart money were short). Tomorrow is NFP. My preferred scenario is a gap lower and then rally up. However, this is a dangerous market and it may very well become a gap down and continued sell-off on cash open or gap up and crap.

五谷

csw2002

On Friday after close, SH saw 6.8 millions outflow, SDS saw 20.8 millions outflow and SPXU saw 100 millions outflow. Flows less than 20 millions or about is the smart money within SH. This appears to argue for a rally on Monday. On Cash close OPEX PCR was at 1.32 and final was at 1.23 - both are neutral.

austinjoe

csw2002 发表于 2016-2-8 12:07 AM
On Friday after close, SH saw 6.8 millions outflow, SDS saw 20.8 millions outflow and SPXU saw 100 m ...

Thx.

newyorker

thanks for the update