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发表于 2010-11-10 12:35 PM
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老美对大公降级美债的一种看法
Another thought on China's downgrade of Treasury bonds...
I've been thinking a lot about Dagong's downgrade of U.S. debt from AA to A+. Let's do a little thought experiment, starting with the following assumptions:
1) Chinese officials have a strong understanding of economics and are fully aware of the potential consequences of their current easy money policies.
2) China wants to have a bigger role on the world stage.
3) China controls the media and Dagong is effectively part of the media.
4) The Chinese citizenry knows that China owns a huge slug of Treasuries and cannot realistically sell in short order.
5) Chinese officials are very sensitive about doing anything politically embarrassing, especially if it appears to be bowing to Western pressure.
These assumptions may or may not be literally true, but I think they are pretty close to accurate. Why would China essentially tell the world that Treasuries are weak securities? Aren't they talking down their own position? Furthermore, aren't they risking political embarrassment, i.e., the Chinese people start asking, if Treasuries are such junk, why do you own so much of them?
It all starts to make sense if China is about to allow the yuan to appreciate further. They want to be taken seriously as a world player and they know that they can't achieve that while continuing to manipulate their currency. However China also can't be seen as giving in to the West. So what do they do? Explain to their people that China can no longer afford to be beholden to the dollar, because Treasury bonds are such junk. Not only does it not appear like the Chinese government is bowing to Westeren demands, it is the opposite. They get to say that the West is profilgate and China is superior. It is a Win-Win for the Chinese government. |
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狗仔卡
发表于 2010-11-10 12:15 PM
