11/01/2010 大盘回顾 （Double Top or Ascending Triangle?）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are BUY   Intermediate 2 of 3 are BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term Model is CONFUSED 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL The trend is not clear. I hold short position overnight because the mini price target hasn’t met, not because it’s safe to hold. GANN DAY MOON:SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 10/26, 11/04 11/06 : 11/07 Next pivot date: 10/25 – 10/27, 11/04

BULLISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout, target 1242. 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months. 10/01 Market Recap: Positive September plus mid-term election means 11%+ up to year end. 10/26 Market Recap: Average 2.7% gain during the 8 trading days surrounding midterm election. 10/29 Market Recap: The last 2 months of year are bullish. BEARISH 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 20 unfilled gaps, the max was 21. 10/29 Market Recap: AAII bull ratio (4-week average) too bullish. 10/29 Market Recap: Commercial (smart money) short Nasdaq 100 heavily according to COT Report. 10/08 Market Recap: Up off-season usually means down earning season. 10/29 Market Recap: Institutions are selling into strength. 6.4.0 SPX and NYMO Divergence Watch: New high on negative NYMO readings, topped? 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): NYSI STO(5,3,3) sell signal. 6.1.9b Extreme ISEE Index Readings Watch: ISEE Indices & ETFs Only Index <= 30, top close? *6.4.2c Extreme TICK Readings Watch: Extremely low TICK guarantees a lower low or close ahead?

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 09/07 L N/A Partial profits on 09/24. ST Model 09/24 L 10/19 Low NYMO Sell 10/28 S 2*ATR(10) Reference only, not meant to be followed.

 

SHORT-TERM: DOUBLE TOP OR ASCENDING TRIANGLE, WE HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE

 

今天SPX又高开低走，不过暂时不说明熊，因为甚至在intraday图上连个lower low都没有，从下面的图看，既可能是Double Top，也可能是Ascending Triangle，所以看明天吧。

 

 

Overall，很多bad signs，当然因为有YES WE CAN扛着，所以现在只能说，熊熊短期有点点希望。

 

6.4.2c Extreme TICK Readings Watch，今天最特别的地方是又有一个extremely low的TICK reading，几率上讲，应该almost guarantees a lower low or close ahead。

 

 

0.1.0 SPY Short-term Trading Signals，太多黑棒棒了，要在以前，一两个黑棒棒就该有回调了。此外，注意potential 1-2-3 trend change的可能性。

 

 

0.2.0 Volatility Index (Daily)，VIX有breakout bullish Falling Wedge的可能，因此是对SPX不利的。

 

 

当然，你可以说上图的bullish Falling Wedge没有confirm，不过如果VIX leads SPX还工作的话，下面这个图应该是说SPX要跌了。

 

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BEARISH BIASED, PIVOT DATE EITHER ON 10/25 OR AROUND 11/04

 

Maintain the intermediate-term bearish view. We may have passed the pivot day on 10/25 or the next pivot day could be 11/04. Below are summaries of all the arguments supporting my intermediate-term bearish view:

1. As mentioned in 10/29 Market Recap, commercial (smart money) holds record high short positions against Nasdaq 100.
2. As mentioned in 10/29 Market Recap, AAII bull ratio (4-week average) is way too bullish.
3. As mentioned in 10/29 Market Recap, institution selling keeps increasing.
4. As mentioned in 10/08 Market Recap, statistically, a strong off-season could mean a weaker earning season.
5. As mentioned in 10/22 Market Recap, NYSI Weekly STO(5,3,3) sell signal means choppy ahead.

SEASONALITY: LAST 2 MONTHS OF YEAR ARE BULLISH

 

See 10/29 Market Recap for more details.

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	SIGNAL	COMMENT
QQQQ	10/15 L
NDX Weekly		%B too high with negative divergence. NASI weekly STO(5,3,3) sell signal.
IWM
IWM Weekly
CHINA	07/15 L	Primary downtrend line breakout not confirmed.
CHINA Weekly		High %B with negative divergence plus stalled under primary bear trend line. Pullback?
EEM		Could be a Symmetrical Triangle in the forming, so one more push up?
EEM Weekly
XIU.TO	08/31 L	*Breakdown trend line then back test the previous high?
XIU.TO Weekly		Testing Fib 61.8%.
TLT		1-2-3 trend change confirmed, the intermediate-term trend is down. ChiOsc is too low though.
TLT Weekly
FXE		Could be a Symmetrical Triangle in the forming, so one more push up? Pay attention to volume surge on UUP, US$ may very close to a bottom.
FXE Weekly		Stalled at Fib confluences area.
GLD		Watch for potential 1-2-3 trend change! Bump and Run Reversal in the forming? *Bearish reversal bar.
GLD Weekly
GDX	10/29 L	Watch for potential 1-2-3 trend change! *Bearish reversal bar.
GDX Weekly
USO		*Bull Flag breakout to be confirmed.
WTIC Weekly
XLE	6/15 L
XLE Weekly		%B too high with negative divergence.
XLF	10/15 L
XLF Weekly		Head and Shoulders Top in the forming?
IYR		Testing trend line support.
IYR Weekly		Home builders are lagging.
XLB	*11/02 L
XLB Weekly

1. Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.
2. Position reported in short-term session of the table above is for short-term model only, I may or may not hold other positions which will not be disclosed.
3. Conclusions can be confirmed endlessly, but trading wise, you have to take actions at certain risk level as soon as you feel the confirmation is enough. There’s no way for me to adapt to different risk levels therefore no trading signals will be given in this report except the mechanical signals such as SPY ST Model.
4. * = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list
5. Trading signals in OTHER ETFs table are mechanical signals. See HERE for back test results. 

dreampen

sofa!

STEVEN

dreampen

thanks

Bencat

dreampen

Dank!

mikeqc

1st page ding

lwmm

ding

pig2006

Thanks, Cobra

ut1984

IMeMyself

thanks

greenback

nanosensor

Thanks

我是谁

t-k

lehldk

老蛇confused!!!!! 顶，首次啊！

maomi

1st page?

Poo

thank you

philles

Cobra

老蛇confused!!!!! 顶，首次啊！
lehldk 发表于 2010-11-1 20:46

    靠，我就从来没有清楚过，NND。