美股很可能正迅速接近中期顶部

逍遥山人 · 发表于 2010-9-16 06:56 AM

先上一份从去年（09年）4月底以来的AAII调查记录：

日期 Bullish Bearish Neutral 牛熊比率
Apr-30-2009 36.09% 43.61% 20.30%
May-07-2009 44.09% 33.33% 22.58%
May-14-2009 43.81% 35.24% 20.95%
May-21-2009 33.72% 45.35% 20.93%
May-28-2009 40.37% 48.62% 11.01%
Jun-04-2009 47.56% 36.59% 15.85% 1.3 顶部
Jun-11-2009 39.25% 39.25% 21.50%
Jun-18-2009 33.33% 46.43% 20.24%
Jun-25-2009 28.00% 48.80% 23.20%
Jul-02-2009 37.84% 44.59% 17.57%
Jul-09-2009 27.91% 54.65% 17.44% 0.51 底部
Jul-16-2009 28.68% 47.06% 24.26%
Jul-23-2009 37.60% 42.40% 20.00%
Jul-30-2009 47.67% 31.40% 20.93%
Aug-06-2009 50.00% 35.16% 14.84% 1.42 顶部
Aug-13-2009 51.00% 33.00% 16.00% 1.54
Aug-20-2009 34.07% 40.00% 25.93%
Aug-27-2009 33.98% 48.54% 17.48%
Sep-03-2009 37.97% 37.97% 24.05%
Sep-10-2009 37.33% 44.00% 18.67%
Sep-17-2009 42.14% 40.00% 17.86%
Sep-24-2009 39.09% 44.55% 16.36%
Oct-01-2009 43.55% 35.48% 20.97%
Oct-08-2009 35.09% 41.23% 23.68%
Oct-15-2009 47.30% 33.78% 18.92% 1.4 顶部
Oct-22-2009 40.48% 35.71% 23.81%
Oct-29-2009 33.65% 42.31% 24.04%
Nov-05-2009 22.22% 55.56% 22.22% 0.4 底部
Nov-12-2009 38.62% 38.62% 22.76%
Nov-19-2009 42.73% 31.82% 25.45%
Nov-26-2009 41.67% 41.67% 16.67%
Dec-03-2009 41.58% 33.66% 24.75%
Dec-10-2009 42.68% 35.37% 21.95%
Dec-17-2009 42.11% 28.42% 29.47%
Dec-24-2009 37.68% 37.68% 24.64%
Dec-31-2009 49.18% 22.95% 27.87% 2.14 顶部
Jan-07-2010 41.00% 26.00% 33.00%
Jan-14-2010 47.44% 26.92% 25.64% 1.76
Jan-21-2010 40.00% 34.74% 25.26%
Jan-28-2010 35.00% 36.67% 28.33%
Feb-04-2010 29.23% 43.08% 27.69% 底部
Feb-11-2010 36.75% 41.88% 21.37%
Feb-18-2010 35.85% 35.22% 28.93%
Feb-25-2010 34.90% 29.53% 35.57%
Mar-04-2010 35.86% 26.21% 37.93%
Mar-11-2010 45.29% 25.29% 29.41% 1.79
Mar-18-2010 35.37% 29.88% 34.76%
Mar-25-2010 32.39% 34.66% 32.95%
Apr-01-2010 41.30% 31.16% 27.54%
Apr-08-2010 42.86% 30.36% 26.79%
Apr-15-2010 48.48% 29.70% 21.82% 1.63 顶部
Apr-22-2010 38.12% 34.25% 27.62%
Apr-29-2010 41.36% 28.64% 30.00%
May-06-2010 39.13% 28.57% 32.30%
May-13-2010 36.60% 36.60% 26.80%
May-20-2010 41.30% 33.70% 25.00%
May-27-2010 29.82% 50.88% 19.30% 0.58 底部
Jun-03-2010 37.09% 40.85% 22.07%
Jun-10-2010 34.48% 43.10% 22.41%
Jun-17-2010 42.45% 30.66% 26.89%
Jun-24-2010 34.46% 32.43% 33.11%
Jul-01-2010 24.68% 41.99% 33.33%
Jul-08-2010 20.94% 57.07% 21.99% 0.36 底部
Jul-15-2010 39.37% 37.80% 22.83%
Jul-22-2010 32.16% 45.03% 22.81%
Jul-29-2010 40.00% 33.33% 26.67%
Aug-05-2010 30.39% 38.24% 31.37%
Aug-12-2010 39.76% 30.12% 30.12%
Aug-19-2010 30.11% 42.47% 27.42%
Aug-26-2010 20.74% 49.47% 29.79%
Sep-02-2010 30.80% 42.21% 27.00%
Sep-09-2010 43.87% 31.61% 24.52%
Sep-16-2010 50.89% 24.26% 24.85% 2.09

从上面的历史记录中可以看到，大致上每当AAII调查中，牛派情绪>47% ，熊派情绪<35%的时候，大盘基本上会在5~7交易日内（从AAII调查出来的周四算起），到达中期涨势的最高点。

今天早上AAII调查显示：bull=50.89% ，bear=24.26% ，多空情绪对比为2.09 。比较靠近这个数字的历史纪录是去年12月31日的那次调查，结果大盘在第7个交易日到达涨势的最高点，随后筑顶下跌。

因此，大盘很可能将在下周末到达本波涨势的最高点，10月份或许会有一轮较大的跌势。

免责声明：仅供参考，不构成投资或投机建议。 YMYD！

yaobooyao · 发表于 2010-9-16 07:02 AM

Nice data analysis.

slcgh · 发表于 2010-9-16 07:04 AM

开小差 · 发表于 2010-9-16 07:07 AM

thx, ding

qunzong · 发表于 2010-9-16 07:09 AM

hunting · 发表于 2010-9-16 07:10 AM

happyface · 发表于 2010-9-16 07:10 AM

thanks for sharing

cycle · 发表于 2010-9-16 07:11 AM

yanjun · 发表于 2010-9-16 07:11 AM

lzh_dl · 发表于 2010-9-16 07:11 AM

呵呵，有点意思

ByStander · 发表于 2010-9-16 07:12 AM

xz214 · 发表于 2010-9-16 07:12 AM

tomzhou88 · 发表于 2010-9-16 07:12 AM

ding

mary · 发表于 2010-9-16 07:15 AM

jeff110 · 发表于 2010-9-16 07:16 AM

好东东, 收藏了.

妞妞 · 发表于 2010-9-16 07:21 AM

cogitoepk · 发表于 2010-9-16 07:23 AM

windy · 发表于 2010-9-16 07:24 AM

thanks

大牛Steve · 发表于 2010-9-16 07:27 AM

alwaysreader · 发表于 2010-9-16 07:29 AM

回复 1# 逍遥山人

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[原创] 美股很可能正迅速接近中期顶部

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