|
|
这是转自joey fahmy的文章, 说的很有道理. 为什么我想转发这帖子, 看见论坛上好多trader天天在pick top, 不亦乐乎. 要知道股市除了上升或者下降还有横盘, 还有小幅调整. 只有在大幅下降的情况下, 卖空才真正能赚到钱. 而现在的市场大幅狂泻的可能比较小, 也就是说卖空现在是吃力不讨好的事情. 你们觉得呢?
During this recent market correction, I have received several emails asking me why I don't recommend short ideas. In my Introduction blog post, I talk about finding an investment philosophy that fits your personality...and quite simply, shorting is not for me. The title of this article is not meant to offend anyone, as I never try to impose my trading style on anyone. I actually believe that shorting is a necessary part of the stock market and that short-covering can add stability to a correcting or "free-falling" market. Nevertheless, it doesn't fit my personality and here are my reasons why:
1) I believe that the market is healthy 2-3 times a year. Do your homework, identify those times, and invest accordingly. The rest of the time, I prefer to stay out mainly to take a mental break and focus on other things. For example, since the March 2009 low, I intensely traded the market for about 14 months and never took a break. When the market went into its recent corrective phase, it gave me time to work on my business, take a brief vacation, do post analysis of my trades, spend more time with family, and most importantly: take a mental break! Even if trading is not your main occupation, you'll be surprised how much more productive you can be at work when you're sitting in cash, waiting patiently for new bases to build, and not constantly watching the market.
2) Shorting is flat out too difficult and frustrating. In Jack Schwager's Market Wizards, William O'Neil says that: "Selling short is quite tricky. I myself have only made significant profits on the short side of two of the last nine bear markets." I'm not a big fan of re-inventing the wheel. In other words, if one of the top traders of all time is telling us that shorting is difficult, then who am I to think that I'm going to be any better at it?
3) Effective use of capital. In 2002, a hedge fund manager that I have tremendous respect for shorted some of the bond insurers ($MBI $ABK) saying they would eventually fail. He was mostly correct in his prediction, but there were a few problems. First, it took over SEVEN years for his call to play out. Second, the stocks increased over +50% from 2002-2007 BEFORE they eventually fell apart; this can be painful and excruciating when you are short a stock. Third, during that period, there were huge winning stocks (such as $TASR $HANS $AAPL $GOOG) that increased from +500% to over +2000%. In my humble opinion, I would rather invest my capital on the long side in stocks with infinite upside potential than frustrate myself on the short side for limited gains. In other words, I WOULD RATHER MAKE DOLLARS THAN PENNIES!
4) Limited gains. A $20 stock can theoretically go to $1,000 or higher on the long side. A $20 stock can only make you $20 on the short side and that's only if the company completely goes out of business! Realistically, the company's stock will stabilize in the single digits even if the common paper is worthless.
5) In 1999, after CMGI's stock rose from $1 to $120, a very sharp money manager I know was adamant that the stock was going back to $1. Once again, he was dead right with his prediction except for one thing: the stock tripled to $360 before it collapsed back to $1!!! This proves the old stock market adage that: "Just when you think a stock can't go any higher it usually does, and just when you think it can't go any lower it usually does."
6) Shorting seems to only work well in full blown Bear Markets and not in intermediate 8-12% corrections. For example, I know people who shorted stocks effectively back in August 2008, and they were frustrated that they covered WAY too early. In their defense, no one expected the severity of the ensuing correction at that time. Another example is the current market environment. Some people are shorting now with the expectations of a new Bear Market, but they could also end up frustrated if we abruptly turn and move to new highs later this year. My point is that either way: SHORTING IS VERY FRUSTRATING!!!
7) Whenever you are loaded up on the short side, you wish for the worst possible news to come out. You hope for a bomb to go off somewhere, Middle East tensions to escalate, swine flu to spread, a plane crash, anthrax in the mail, or a deadly virus to breakout that can only be cured by capturing the host monkey from the movie Outbreak. In other words, we turn into sick individuals just so we can make $1.37 on our $FAZ and $QID positions! I know this point may sound a little disturbing, but trust me, if you are in intense trader like myself, it's very true.
As I said in the beginning, this article is not meant to offend short sellers. I simply think that shorting is too frustrating and I would rather take a mental break and focus on other things while the market is correcting. I will leave you with one final thought: The best traders I know do post analysis of their trades. Go back and isolate your short trades. Be honest and ask yourself if you've made a net profit on those trades. I'm guessing that over 95% of you will answer no. By the way, I'm also in that 95%...another reason why shorting is not for me. |
|
狗仔卡
发表于 2010-9-13 12:43 AM
提升卡
置顶卡
沉默卡
喧嚣卡
变色卡
