08/23/2010 大盘回顾 （Rebound still is possible）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 are SELL   Intermediate 2 of 3 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in SELL mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode. Short-term Model is SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL Trend is down but I hold no short position overnight. GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 8/26, 9/10 08/24 / 08/23 8/23 Next pivot date: 08/23 – 08/26

BULLISH BEARISH 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: the 3rd Hindenburg Omen triggered. *T2105 too high. *0.2.5 NYSE Total Volume: A little bit low.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 08/16 S N/A For general direction guide only. ST Model *08/23 S 1.9*ATR(10) *Long closed and short initiated on 08/23.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The purpose of this report is to provide info so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: NO UPDATE

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: STATISTICS ARE BEARISH

See 08/20 Market Recap for more details.

 

SHORT-TERM: REBOUND STILL IS POSSIBLE

 

先说结论：

1. 短期rebound还是有可能的，我不是很sure though，因为 0.2.5 NYSE Total Volume还是很低，看着不像是bottom的样子。
2. 由于中期又添了一个不怎么牛牛友好的信号，因此我相对比较sure，中期bearish。

为什么说短期rebound还是有可能的呢？我在08/20 Market Recap里提到的time, price and chart pattern的理由，今天依然成立。除此以外，今天又增加了两个理由：

 

VIX Leads SPX，这个好象最近工作的很好。

 

 

今天的After Bell Quick Summary提到了可能会有Firework，如果看一下the History of the Firework trading setup的话就会明白，这个setup，如果现在还能用的话，是相当powerful的。当然，今天的CPC < 0.8据说是由于个别股票huge speculation call引起的，因此是否仅仅是special event还有待于进一步观察。

 

To be fair，如果牛牛愿意相信上面提到的Firework的话，那就要接受6.1.0 Extreme CPCE Readings Watch，CPCE < 0.42短期bullish但是中期bearish的pattern。这个中期bearish的pattern正好也符合我在08/20 Market Recap里罗列的一大堆中期bearish的统计。

 

 

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	DTMFS	COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ	UP	SELL
IWM	UP	SELL
CHINA	UP		Head and Shoulders Bottom in the forming?
EMERGING	UP	SELL	4.1.6 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Weekly): EEM to SPX ratio too high.
EUROPEAN	DOWN	SELL	Could be a breakdown of an important support.
CANADA	UP	*SELL	*Black bar doesn’t look good.
BOND	UP		4.2.0 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Weekly): Too far away from MA(200).
EURO	DOWN	SELL
GOLD	UP
GDX	UP		4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX to SPX ratio too high.
OIL	DOWN	*SELL
ENERGY	DOWN	SELL
FINANCIALS	DOWN	SELL	4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Head and Shoulders Top in the forming?
REITS	UP	SELL	4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Home builder is lagging, be careful.
MATERIALS	UP	SELL

*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals. Use it as a filter, don’t trade directly.

hi-liter

呵呵，头次沙发。
先顶再看！

c3456

回复 1# Cobra


   

n748

sofa

oldfox

t-k

X中国陆军

everest001

Thirty-cents

great work. thanks a lot.

Fan8an

thanks

dreampen

tonyshen

H@T

rosyrosy

tortose

源济

top枪

学习

IMeMyself

thanks

ht2010

Thanks a lot!

lwmm

thanks