07/13/2010 大盘回顾 （WOW the Tenth）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 1 of 2 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model in SELL mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode Short-term   3 of 5 are NEUTRAL Added long on 07/13, closed same day, still hold 07/07 long. GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE CONCLUSION 07/24-07/28 *07/25 / 07/23 07/16, 07/31 Next pivot date: 07/16

BULLISH *6.3.1a Major Accumulation Day Watch: Tradable bottom when 2 MAD within 5 days? BEARISH *0.2.6 NYSE - Issues Advancing: MA(5) way too overbought. *6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals: A little bit low.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU Non-Stop 06/30 S N/A Be sure to check 8.2.2a to 8.2.2g to understand the risks. ST Model     *Setup mentioned on 07/12 was not confirmed and therefore no long valid. *You may want to short if SPY tomorrow’s Open > tomorrow’s Close, but unless tomorrow down big, otherwise SPY ST Model may be in BUY mode tomorrow or the day after tomorrow thus making the short setup invalid.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: EARLY THIS WEEK IS BULLISH, OE FRIDAY IS BEARISH

See 07/09 Market Recap for more details.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT HUGE REBOUND BEFORE 2ND LEG DOWN

Still expect a 2nd leg down but since the retailers sentiment is way too bearish so the rebound we have now could be huge. See 07/09 Market Recap for more details.

 

SHORT-TERM: EXPECT PULLBACK AS EARLY AS TOMORROW BUT AFTER THAT THERE’LL BE A NEW RECOVERY HIGH

 

见下图，07/09 Market Recap里提到的mini price target今天实现了。现在的问题是，反弹有没有结束？

 

 

还记得07/09 Market Recap里提到的rebound isn’t over的理由吗？No RSI negative divergence at that time，对吧？那么现在有没有negative divergence呢？自己看下面的图。还是没有，至少不明显是吧？所以反弹还没有完，对吧？

 

 

0.2.6 NYSE - Issues Advancing，NYADV MA(5)，今天达到了历史上屈指可数的高度，看看过去这么高的时候都发生了什么？虽然其实明天红棒棒的几率非常高，不过此后多半还有new high，对吧？

 

 

所以，结论是反弹还没有结束。依然维持time target around 07/16，price target则调高到SPX 1111ish。

 

明天，After Bell Quick Summary里提了，a little little bit bearish，上面的NYADV MA(5) extremely high的历史纪录也是说明天red。不过，盘后的INTC ER让很多人很怀疑明天是否会red，对吧？那，下面是INTC ER day的历史表现(courtesy of Bespoke)，基本上都是高开低走，所以明天大盘如何表现，还很难说。

 

 

嗯，还是not convinced，是吧？这里还有颗重磅炸弹，a big WOW – Nasdaq Intraday Cumulative Tick (courtesy of sentimentrader) is way too high。这个不一定说明天red，但是前9次WOW后不久，都有不同程度的大跌，see 06/30 Market Recap, 06/25 Market Recap, 06/02 Market Recap, 05/26 Market Recap, 05/18 Market Recap, 05/12 Market Recap, 05/03 Market Recap, 04/29 Market Recap, 04/20 Market Recap and 04/14 Market Recap。

 

 

结论，明天red不red，其实不重要，既然知道了WOW这个东东，同时如果也注意到了0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator and 6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals已经比较接近extreme了，明天green其实更好，牛牛好有所准备。觉得miss了北上的列车的呢，也不必着急，就怕到时候WOW起作用大跌的时候，你又不相信我说的new recovery high ahead了。

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST

	TREND	COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ	DOWN	4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target 1565.
IWM	DOWN
CHINA	DOWN
EMERGING	UP
EUROPEAN	UP	4.1.7 Vanguard European VIPERs (VGK Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $35.45.
CANADA	DOWN	4.1.5 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $15.30.
BOND	UP
EURO	UP	*6.4.5 GLD and UUP Watch: GLD black bar means UUP up therefore EURO pullback tomorrow.
GOLD	UP	4.3.0 Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99.
GDX	UP
OIL	DOWN
ENERGY	DOWN	4.4.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $43.14.
FINANCIALS	DOWN
REITS	DOWN	4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Pay attention to XHB weakness!
MATERIALS	DOWN	4.4.4 Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB Weekly): Double Top, target $23.27.

slcgh

抢个座！

hhli3

1st page.

rosyrosy

floor

nanosensor

Ding!

oldfox

stockgirl

First page Thank you!

michaelzhang

oda

hillcrest

thank you Cobra! waiting for the dip.

lite1067

谢蛇大。In WOW, we trust !!

我这个计划定得总是没有变化快。

X中国陆军

maldini

like2swing

thanks. Waiting for Wow pull back to buy dip.

fara

first page, yeah.

summer123

ranchgirl

Great stuff

always

windy

班长以理服人, 以理服人, 对吧？

sunnysunny