07/06/2010 大盘回顾 （Weak Rebound）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 1 of 2 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are SELL 3 of 5 are NEUTRAL Non-Stop Model is in SELL mode Short-term 1 of 1 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in SELL mode GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE & TIME FIB CONCLUSION 07/07-07/11 07/11 / 07/07 07/31, 08/20-08/23 Next pivot date: 07/07-07/11

BULLISH 6.3.2c Major Distribution Day Watch: MDD > 35, bottomed? 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: NYADV MA(10) oversold. 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: NYA50R oversold. BEARISH 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Head and Shoulders Top plus Bearish Engulfing, target 861.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model 07/01 S 1.9xATR(10) May not be a good timing, so be careful. Reversal Bar     NYMO Sell     Non-Stop(RSP) 06/30 S N/A Be sure to check 8.2.2a to 8.2.2g to understand the risks.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: JULY IS THE BEST PERFORMING DOW AND S&P MONTH OF THE 3RD QUARTER

See 07/02 Market Recap for more details.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: REBOUND (IF ANY) THEN MOST LIKELY THERE’LL BE A 2ND LEG DOWN

See 07/02 Market Recap for more details.

 

SHORT-TERM: MOST LIKELY THE JULY 1ST LOW WILL BE REVISITED

 

今天没啥说的，After Bell Quick Summary里关于down 5 days up 1 day的统计，希望大家看看，明天并没有什么edge。I have no idea是否反弹已经结束了，不过，看起来07/01的low will be revisited eventually。

 

下面是所有自2000年以来，SPX down 5 days in a row then rebound for 1 day的图，我看到2个规律：

1. 反弹前的low，都不是THE LOW，soon or later都被revisit了。这个符合我最近一直在说的there’ll be a 2nd leg down的结论。
2. 今天的反弹是the 3rd weakest (SPX up 0.54%)。这个感觉不好，很少有重要的底部的反弹是这么弱的。前两次比今天弱的是05/14/2001，02/25/2004，从图上可以看到这两个case(blue cycles)都是发生在明显的上升趋势，SPX是连跌了5天，但是跌幅非常小，因此不适用于我们现在的情况。

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE OTHER ETFS IN MY PUBLIC CHART LIST
*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals. Use it as a filter, don’t trade directly.

	TREND	*DTFMS	COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided.
QQQQ	DOWN		NAADV MA(10) oversold. 4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target 1565.
IWM	DOWN		Ascending Broadening Wedge, target $54.97.
CHINA	DOWN
EMERGING	UP
EUROPEAN	UP		4.1.7 Vanguard European VIPERs (VGK Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $35.45.
CANADA	DOWN		TOADV MA(10) oversold. 4.1.5 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $15.30.
BOND	UP
EURO	UP	BUY
GOLD	UP	SELL	4.3.0 Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99. Be careful of the non-confirmation of SLV and GDX.
GDX	UP	SELL	4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX:$SPX is too high.
OIL	DOWN	SELL
ENERGY	DOWN		4.4.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $43.14.
FINANCIALS	DOWN		4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Sitting on very important support.
REITS	*DOWN		4.4.3 Real Estate iShares (IYR Weekly): Pay attention to XHB weakness!
MATERIALS	DOWN		4.4.4 Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB Weekly): Double Top, target $23.27.

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