06/24/2010 大盘回顾 （SPX Down 4 Days in a Row）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 2 of 3 are BUY 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL Non-Stop Model is in BUY mode Short-term 2 of 2 are SELL 5 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in BUY mode GANN DAY MOON/SOLAR CYCLE & TIME FIB CONCLUSION 07/07-07/11 06/26 / 07/07 07/31, 08/20-08/23 Next pivot date: 07/07?

BULLISH 8.1.1 Normalized NATV/NYTV: Too low, so bottomed? 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: ROC < –9%, so bottomed? *0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch: all 3 ratios are high, so bottomed? BEARISH 0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals: trend line broken, so topped? *6.3.2b Major Distribution Day Watch: 2 MDD within 5 days means an intermediate-term down trend. CONCLUSION

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING PLATFORM: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model   *Buy setup is no longer valid.  Reversal Bar     *Buy setup is no longer valid. NYMO Sell     Non-Stop(RSP) 06/17 L N/A See 06/17 Market Recap for more details. OTHER ETFs TREND *DTFMS COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ UP   IWM DOWN   Ascending Broadening Wedge, downward breakout 73% of the time. CHINA DOWN EMERGING UP   EUROPEAN UP   CANADA UP   BOND UP BUY ChiOsc is way too high now. EURO DOWN *BUY GOLD UP   4.3.0 Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99. GDX UP   4.3.1 Market Vectors Gold Miners (GDX Weekly): GDX:$SPX is too high. OIL UP   ENERGY UP   FINANCIALS DOWN   REITS UP   MATERIALS UP

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.
*DTFMS = Dual Time Frame Momentum Strategy. The signal is given when both weekly and daily STO have the same buy/sell signals. Use it as a filter, don’t trade directly.

SEASONALITY: WEEK AFTER JUNE TRIPLE WITCHING WAS BEARISH

See 06/18 Market Recap for more details.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: OFFICIALLY STILL UP BUT BEARISH BIASED AS MORE TOP SIGNALS PILING UP

 

SPX daily图上还没有lower high and lower lower，并且table above的2个主要intermediate-term model，SPY ST Model and Non-Stop Model目前还都是buy，因此officially，the intermediate-term is still up。不过到今天为止，已经有两个信号说market可能已经top了，所以暂时bearish biased about the intermediate-term trend。明天如果还跌或者涨幅不大的话，可能会有第三个market top的信号，weekly Bearish Engulfing，上次就是靠这个成功喊顶，see 04/30 Market Recap，这将会加重market has topped可能性。

 

0.0.2 Combined Intermediate-term Trading Signals，这个top信号昨天讲了，trend line broken，因此market top了。今天trend line still held，因此算是confirm breakout。

 

 

6.3.2b Major Distribution Day Watch，这个是今天的坏消息，见蓝虚线（表示短期有反弹）和红虚线（表示短期无反弹），2 Major Distribution Days within 5 days，most likely means an intermediate-term down trend。当然，因为蓝虚线的case稍微多一些，因此短期反弹的几率还是挺大的。

 

 

SHORT-TERM: EXPECT A REBOUND AS EARLY AS TOMORROW

 

短期有反弹的机会，理由有五：

 

6.3.2b Major Distribution Day Watch，这个在上面intermediate-term session里说了，短期反弹的几率大。今天的After Bell Quick Summary也提到了6.3.2a Major Distribution Day Watch，明天有67%的机会收绿。

 

今天的After Bell Quick Summary还提到了由于SPY连跌4天，因此明天有70%+的几率反弹。下面是最近几年SPX连跌4天的情况，只能说短期反弹的可能性很大，不过运气不好的话，抄底会很惨，因此并不是暗示要抄底，而是说假如有long被trap了，可能可以等两天，赌赌运气。

 

 

0.2.2 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch，绿色虚线，CPC/CPCE/CPCI都很高的时候，表示太过panic了，因此可很能是bottom。

 

 

1.0.0 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min)，这个图的RSI很准，尤其是有positive divergence的时候。 

 

 

0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield，bullish reversal bar看着很promising，yield往往领先于大盘。

 

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