GOOG 的目标价

AGA7d

dividend_growth

GOOG是好的，只不过去年底冲得太快了，现在暂时砸下去吓吓小散们。

Android, Chrome, Youtube以后都是财源滚滚。

俺等420-450一线。

AGA7d

GOOG是好的，只不过去年底冲得太快了，现在暂时砸下去吓吓小散们。

Android, Chrome, Youtube以后都是财 ...
dividend_growth 发表于 2010-6-10 23:12

One analyst is very bullish on GOOG TV.

The recent down is related to
1) GOOG out of China
2) The exchange rate - Euro drop will hurt GOOG's revenue by 3%
3) the AAPL's decision to potentially lock GOOG out from iPhone ads
4) Bing gained some searches by bribing users

If the big market keeps sliding, then 420 is possible. Otherwise, 460 would be bottom.

dividend_growth

关于第4），Bing已经投降了。

seagal

GOOG是好的，只不过去年底冲得太快了，现在暂时砸下去吓吓小散们。

Android, Chrome, Youtube以后都是财 ...
dividend_growth 发表于 2010-6-10 23:12

你想没想过，Android, Chrome, Youtube怎么赚钱？Youtube我只知道一直亏损。。。
您所举的都是些holy crap,为什么这么说？方便你我的东西，不一定能赚钱。。。goog唯一赚钱的还是它的搜索引擎。只有它才能有效嵌入广告。。。
他的搜索引擎离开中国，等于砍断了这只九头鸟的一颗头，因此在这个熊市趋势下，长期他只能去200。。。呵呵。。。

Android VS iphone, ipad, 基本没戏。。。
Chrome VS firefox: 你可以用它打开文学城试试，连图片都不能很好显示。。。更要紧的是它怎么赚钱？
Youtube：甭提了，每年亏损4.1亿美元。。。

给我个理由，它怎么再上600？靠goog TV，不断播广告你看？

dividend_growth

你想没想过，Android, Chrome, Youtube怎么赚钱？Youtube我只知道一直亏损。。。
您所举的都是些holy  ...
seagal 发表于 2010-6-10 23:44

09年初的经济危机，对狗狗核心业务既然没有任何打击，可见其有很强的recession resistance，这样好的business，天下还有几个？


嘿嘿，果果没Steve Jobs能行？Steve Jobs是个genius，但也是control freak，俺就不信control freak底下能出真正独立思考能力的接班人！

但Steve还能撑多久？一个癌症患者肝移植后还能活很久？当年棒球明星Mickey Mantle换了后撑了2年，Steve是09初换的。


Android出来这么短，就追上iPhone了，可想其威力。

这次狗狗捅果果的刀子一定跟当年微软一样。走而言之，三个臭皮匠，赛过一个诸葛亮。就算Android暂时超不过iPhone，宰RIMM, Palm, Symbian, Windows总该不是问题吧？


微软9个月烧了1个B来跟狗狗较量，效果甚微，现在已经投降了，可见狗狗核心业务的坚固了。

至于Chrome, Youtube现在不赚钱，投资者根本不需要担心，俺建议你多看看巴菲特关于"competitive advantage"和"economic moat"上面的评论再说。


最后关于微软和狗狗的战斗，根据俺在两个公司内部关系的透露，微软没戏；要是有戏，Bill Gates也不会SELLING MSFT LIKE THERE IS NO TOMORROW.

听说炒股赚钱

还真没忽悠到1000.

temujin

Lol, you probably didn't think google would never to go 200 when it first IPO'd.
Android and iPhone will the dominating smart phone platforms, personally I like android better, it's more open, but there's more than enough room for 2 major players.  They've just started monetizing youtube, I wouldn't be surprised if it starts making profit by next year.  TV advertising is a huge market, if they can get a piece it'll be great.  Chrome is a great browser, superfast, html5 compliant, html5 will be the future as both Apple and Google are pushing for it.  What's google biggest asset?  People, they have the smartest and brightest, don't bet against google.

dividend_growth

Lol, you probably didn't think google would never to go 200 when it first IPO'd.
Android and iPhone ...
temujin 发表于 2010-6-11 00:16

说得好，狗狗现在赚钱已经赚得流油，不需要贪得无厌的什么小钱都赚；

总而言之，只有放长线才能掉到大鱼，把东西搞好了，自然有人愿意来花钱。

dividend_growth

至于AAPL，business momentum确实非常强，就算Steve不在了，也能保持余威数年，但不要盼望outsized returns了。

temujin

Goog office, a lot of small business use it, they'll find a way to monetize it.  Chrome OS, coming out later this year, technology is becoming mature enough for applications to move to the cloud.  A lot of people don't really do much other than surf the internet with their computer.  There are a lot of other areas Google is moving into, I really can't see anyone stopping their momentum.  Again, it's all because of the talented people they have.

sfbayarea

AGA7d 发表于 2010-6-10 22:43

    一到520ish 我就short 它。

AGA7d

你想没想过，Android, Chrome, Youtube怎么赚钱？Youtube我只知道一直亏损。。。
您所举的都是些holy  ...
seagal 发表于 2010-6-10 23:44

Obviously you don't know enough - Android will be a great money maker for GOOG as mobile phone ads market will grow into tens of billions $. Android outsold iPhone in the 1st Q, also has a strong head start in Q2. It is likely the future smartphone will be divided between Android and iPhone. RIMM/NOK are losing the war fast.

I am not sure about Chrome though - Youtube has already brought in display ads. How long will Youtube will be profitable - I don't know. GOOG-TV has received good reviews, I am positive it will eat into traditional TVs' pie.

AGA7d

Lol, you probably didn't think google would never to go 200 when it first IPO'd.
Android and iPhone ...
temujin 发表于 2010-6-11 00:16

Chrome as an OS, not browser.

AGA7d

一到520ish 我就short 它。
sfbayarea 发表于 2010-6-11 01:48

WOW, I am betting GOOG to $600 again. For the near future, you can try. But in the long run, don't. GOOG is really into future (the China exodus is the only stupid thing I know of). All traditional media ads market are being eaten away by GOOG. As long as there are enough people using one of its array of products, it will find a way to put in ads...

I've heard people saying short BIDU at $500 and will not cover until a fat profit. Well, you see...

seagal

09年初的经济危机，对狗狗核心业务既然没有任何打击，可见其有很强的recession resistance，这样好的bu ...
dividend_growth 发表于 2010-6-11 00:07

呵呵，就像当年坛子里很多人捧的AONE一样，继续买，呵呵，直到有一天发现都200多了，我也收队走人了，哈哈。。。
老兄，现实点儿，别假如没有Steve Jobs或者得癌症马上要byebye的所谓猜想，现实就是现实。。。
有没有哪家独立上市手机公司专门生产用那个什么Anroid的操作系统的？请您告诉我一下，我再专开一个short，等它倒闭，我就大发了。。。put那个日MM还不过瘾，到现在只小赚了2x而已。。。

seagal

一到520ish 我就short 它。
sfbayarea 发表于 2010-6-11 01:48

靠，我在515处等它，都没等到它！手上只有580加的，后悔没听老秋的，只是轻仓。。。

dividend_growth

呵呵，就像当年坛子里很多人捧的AONE一样，继续买，呵呵，直到有一天发现都200多了，我也收队走人了，哈哈 ...
seagal 发表于 2010-6-11 13:53

看你这种水平俺就放心了。

temujin

回复 16# seagal

Seriously, AONE? you're comparing GOOG to AONE?

seagal

当年坛子里不是有人说AONE是21世纪下一个GOOG吗？你自己找去。。。记不得是谁说的，我一直潜水没怎么关注。。。
我从没觉得AONE能和GOOG比，不要理解错了！亏钱可别骂我。。。