05/14/2010 大盘回顾 （ Ascending Broadening Wedge）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are SELL 5 of 5 are NEUTRAL Non-Stop Model is in SELL mode Short-term 1 of 1 are SELL 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in SELL mode

BULLISH 0.2.1 10Y T-Bill Yield: Bottomed? 0.1.3 Nasdaq 100 Index Intermediate-term Trading Signals: NADVN too high. 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPC MA(10) too high. BEARISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Ascending Broadening Wedge? Target: 1008 to 1019. CONCLUSION

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU, RSP ST Model 05/06 S 1.9xATR(10) Reversal Bar     NYMO Sell     Non-Stop 05/11 S N/A For general direction guide only. Others *05/14 S 05/13 High *1-2-3 formation sell setup (see 05/13 Market Recap). Info only. OTHER ETFs TREND TRADE COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ DOWN     IWM DOWN     CHINA DOWN   2 big green bars in a row usually means rebound more. *4.1.4 Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (Weekly): Testing support. EMERGING DOWN     EUROPEAN DOWN   4.1.7 Vanguard European VIPERs (VGK Weekly): Bearish 1-2-3 formation, target $35.54. CANADA ?   BOND UP   EURO DOWN     YEN ?   GOLD UP   4.3.0 Gold Trust Shares (GLD Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $129.99. OIL DOWN ENERGY DOWN   FINANCIALS DOWN   REITS UP   MATERIALS DOWN

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: MONDAY AND FRIDAY ARE BULLISH

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac:

1. Monday before May Expiration, Dow up 19 of last 21.
2. May expiration day, Dow up 5 of last 8.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX PULLBACK TARGET COULD BE AROUND 1008 TO 1019 AREA

 

中期，暂时维持以下两点forecast。

1. 05/06 low may be broken but no evidence says this is a start of a new bear market. See 05/07 Market Recap for more details.
2. The pullback could last to 05/23 at least. See 05/10 Market Recap for more details.

下面的图是关于pullback target的speculation。由于周一到周四的rebound，正好符合partial rise，因此看起来Ascending Broadening Wedge as real as it gets，这样text book target plus Fib confluences area and weekly MA(89)，可能的target就是1008 to 1019 area。至于时间，上面我只是说minimum pullback time could last to 05/23，并不是说05/23就会跌到1008 to 1019 area。

 

 

下面的图可以看到weekly MA(89)的重要性，供参考。

 

 

WARNING: If you don’t understand the true meaning of overbought/oversold, please skip the session below. Generally, you should try your best not to trade against the trend. Trading purely based on overbought/oversold while against the trend is lethal to the health of your account. Before going further, please make sure you understand how to use the table above.
SHORT-TERM: BEAR FLAG

 

看了很多分析，无一例外，都expect Monday rebound，我不知道这是不是个bad sign，毕竟不是每个周末都会有人说，我要印$1,000,000,000,000的。1.0.0 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min)，单从图上看，是个Bear Flag，因此多半没跌完。反弹后再drop or 直接drop，not sure。

 

氢氧化钠

蛇大，我咋觉得上上周四那个100点dip，不应该作为判断的依据呢

bbsid

Thanks a lot

coppereye

将第二条腿进行到底！

sooners

回复 1# Cobra


   

IMeMyself

thanks

always

股海无涯

bokchoy888

great thx

PacificLegend

源济

ranchgirl

great!

ROOKIE2

ding

surya

Thanks a lot!

萧秋水

辛苦了,多谢!

mikeqc

1st page

mikeqc

mikeqc

mikeqc

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