04/27/2010 大盘回顾 （Key Day Tomorrow）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 3 of 5 are NEUTRAL Non-Stop Model is in BUY mode Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 4 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in BUY mode

ATTENTION 1.0.6 SPY Unfilled Gaps: 16 unfilled up gaps. (max was 18) 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: Could be an Ascending Broadening Wedge in the forming. BULLISH 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target 1246. 0.2.3 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: NYHGH new high could mean SPX new high ahead. *0.2.0 Volatility Index (Daily): Too high above MA ENV(10,20), also out of BB. BEARISH 0.1.1 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPCE and CPC MA(10) too low. 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: NYHILO too high. 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): BPSPX too high. CONCLUSION

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model *Stopped out of long position with gains. Reversal Bar   NYMO Sell     Non-Stop     OTHER ETFs TREND TRADE COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ UP   4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): BPNDX overbought and too high above MA(200). IWM UP   4.1.2 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM Weekly): Too high above MA(200). CHINA *DOWN   EMERGING *DOWN   *Bearish 1-2-3 formation confirmed trend line breakdown. So downgrade the trend to down from up. Target $39.90. CANADA UP   BOND *?   *Testing important resistance, will upgrade to up from down if breakout. DOLLAR UP *FXE breakdown to new low! GOLD UP   GDX UP   OIL *? *$WTIC tests MA(50) again, will downgrade to down from up if breakdown. ENERGY UP   FINANCIALS *DOWN   4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Too high above MA(200). *Bearish 1-2-3 formation confirmed trend line breakdown. So downgrade the trend to down from up. Target $15.29. REITS UP MATERIALS UP

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: MOSTLY THE MONTH’S LAST TRADING WEEK WAS RED SINCE AUG 2009

See 04/23 Market Recap for more details.

 

CYCLE ANALYSIS: THE NEXT IMPORTANT DATE IS 05/06

The next potential turn date is 05/06 (+-) which could either be a top or a bottom depending on how the market marches to that date. See 04/16 Market Recap for more details.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT ROLLER COASTER AHEAD

See 04/26 Market Recap for more details.

 

SHORT-TERM: BIG RED TOMORROW MEANS MORE PULLBACK AHEAD WHILE SMALL BAR MEANS A BOTTOM

 

0.1.0 SPY Short-term Trading Signals and 0.1.2 QQQQ Short-term Trading Signals，看一下，技术上并没有很大的damage，因此今天还不说明啥问题，一切要看明天。

 

 

那，怎么样才算是技术上damage了呢？看看1.4.1 iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM Daily) and  3.4.0 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Daily)就知道了，这兄弟俩都搞了个bearish 1-2-3 formation，confirming lower high (since 3 is lower than 1) and lower low (breakdown below 2 today forming a lower low)，因此officially可以视作trend down。现在再看看上面的SPY and QQQQ chart，最坏最坏的情况，他们目前顶多是在形成bearish 1-2-3 formation的2，离lower high的3还早呢。

 

 

明天很关键，如果继续大跌，则很可能是相当于June 2009级别的correction，而明天小红或小绿，则很可能market几经bottom了。

 

 

那么明天会怎么样呢？正常情况下，明天收绿的机会比较大。今天的After Bell Quick Summary讲了4个理由：

1. 6.3.2a Major Distribution Day Watch, the day after a Major Distribution Day is more likely a green day.
2. 6.5.1 SPX and FOMC, FOMC day (that’s tomorrow) is more likely a green day.
3. 6.5.2b Month Day Seasonality Watch, the 3rd last trading day of a month is mostly a green day.
4. 0.2.0 Volatility Index (Daily), according to the statistics about VIX surging more than 20%, very good chances the next day is a green day, at least won’t drop much.

换句话说，就是目前看起来，似乎牛牛的机会多些。

 

今天的Nasdaq Intraday Cumulative TICK (courtesy of sentimentrader)非常非常extreme了，因此也是看涨明天的理由。

 

 

1.0.0 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min)，ChiOsc is way too low，这也是说明天至少早盘有反弹的机会。

 

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