03/29/2010 大盘回顾 （Sell Each Month's Last 2 Trading Days?）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 3 of 3 are BUY 4 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in BUY mode Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 6 of 6 are NEUTRAL

ATTENTION 2.4.4 NYSE McClellan Oscillator: Negative divergence. BULLISH 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target 1246 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): Head and Shoulders Bottom, target 119.42. BEARISH *1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): 16 unfilled gaps. (max was 16) 1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): 9 unfilled gaps. (max was 10) 0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals: CPCE MA(10) too low. 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm: NYHILO too high. 1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): NDXA50R is way too high. 03/25 Market Recap: Smart/dumb confidence spread is too large. 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly): BPSPX too high. CONCLUSION Bearish signals are accumulated enough to justify a short sell. For aggressive traders only. 03/25, another Bearish Engulfing and the NYMO Sell setup was triggered.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model 02/26 L *03/16 low *Adjust stop loss. Reversal Bar   NYMO Sell 03/25 S 03/25 high Non-Stop     *Newly added setup as requested, suitable for investors, no stop loss, simply long or short. Better use RSP (equal weighted SPX ETF) for an average annual return around 15.4% since 2004. Will start to give signal on this setup the next time it’s triggered. OTHER ETFs MID TERM INDICATOR COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ UP 3 of 3 BUY 6.4.6 QQQQ Black Bar Watch: doesn’t look good. 4.1.1 Nasdaq 100 Index (Weekly): BPNDX too high. IWM UP 2 of 2 SELL CHINA *UP 1 of 1 BUY *4.1.4 Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (Weekly): Symmetrical Triangle, breakout on the upside! EMERGING ? 2 of 2 SELL *Breakout Roof formation on the upside, may change the intermediate-term status if further up. CANADA UP 2 of 3 SELL 4.1.5 iShares CDN S&P/TSX 60 Index Fund (XIU.TO Weekly): 3 Doji under important resistance. Lots of negative divergence plus BPTSX is too high. Expect pullback. BOND DOWN 2 of 2 SELL Symmetrical Triangle breakdown. Expect more pullbacks ahead. DOLLAR UP 2 of 2 BUY Head and Shoulders Bottom, target $24.28. 3.1.1 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP 30 min): Could be Head and Shoulders Top, target $23.74. *6.4.5 GLD and UUP Watch: GLD black bar most likely means UUP rebound tomorrow. GOLD DOWN 2 of 2 SELL GDX DOWN 2 of 2 SELL Small Double Top, target $41.52. OIL ? 1 of 2 SELL *Breakout Roof formation on the upside, may change the intermediate-term status if further up. ENERGY ? 3 of 3 SELL FINANCIALS UP 2 of 3 BUY *3 black bars, expect a pullback. 4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Fib confluences area is at $16.76 - $16.97, could be the intermediate-term target. REITS UP 2 of 2 BUY False breakout on narrow range so the real breakout could be on the downside. MATERIALS ? 1 of 3 BUY 4.4.4 Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB Weekly): BPMATE too high.

*Please make sure you understand how to use the table above. The main purpose of this report is to provide information so contradictory signals are always presented.

SEASONALITY: THE LAST 3 TRADING DAYS OF MARCH ARE BEARISH WHILE APRIL 1ST IS VERY BULLISH

CYCLE ANALYSIS: EXPECT A DOJI THIS WEEK, MAY PULLBACK NEXT WEEK UNTIL 04/12

See 03/26 Market Recap for more details.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT ROLLER COASTER AHEAD

Nothing new, according to the II Survey, too many people expected a correction, so the stock market should rise to a new high first before actually pulling back. Basically, my guess is that we’ll repeat the year 2004 roller coaster pattern. See 03/19 Market Recap for more details.

 

SHORT-TERM: SELL SHORT AT TODAY’S CLOSE WERE ALL WINNING TRADES IN THE LAST 7 MONTHS

 

今天没啥说的，维持pullback到04/01，04/01 rebound，本周收小棒棒(or Doji)，下周pullback的判断。

 

6.5.2b Month Day Seasonality Watch，今天有人在我的blog里抱怨seasonality没用，嗯，可能周末的报告我没讲清楚，今天其实是应该涨的(See green arrows)，the setup是说sell short at today’s close，so far过去七个月全是winning trade。这次是不是例外，全看明天了。

 

 

下面的图来自stocktiming ，可以看到Institution Selling increasing。Info only，现在还不说明什么。

 

 

STOCK SCREENER:  For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in BUY mode, only LONG candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.

 

Looks like it’s too late to long stocks now as the market is way too overbought. Waiting for a better chance.

student009

Thank you for your daily hard works!

t-k

trader88

thank

IMeMyself

first page

细水长流

多谢多谢

sooners

回复 1# Cobra


    1st?

Diffusion

X中国陆军

Cool

X中国陆军

源济

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赌：$SPX涨跌，周二 3/30/2010


欢迎各位光临，多谢捧场，恭喜发财！

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读完老蛇的报告，快来赌版投票、下注！


赌：$SPX涨跌，周二 3/30/2010


欢迎各位光临，多谢捧场，恭喜发财！

源济

读完老蛇的报告，快来赌版投票、下注！


赌：$SPX涨跌，周二 3/30/2010


欢迎各位光临，多谢捧场，恭喜发财！

源济

读完老蛇的报告，快来赌版投票、下注！


赌：$SPX涨跌，周二 3/30/2010


欢迎各位光临，多谢捧场，恭喜发财！

源济

读完老蛇的报告，快来赌版投票、下注！


赌：$SPX涨跌，周二 3/30/2010


欢迎各位光临，多谢捧场，恭喜发财！

源济

读完老蛇的报告，快来赌版投票、下注！


赌：$SPX涨跌，周二 3/30/2010


欢迎各位光临，多谢捧场，恭喜发财！

wnd4

thanks

Jeff

Thanks!

xiaoyaoxl

先顶后看

hifive

Many thanks!