03/04/2010 大盘回顾 （Typical Non Farm Payrolls Day Pattern）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 2 of 3 are BUY 4 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in BUY mode Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 3 of 8 are NEUTRAL

BULLISH 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): Could be Head and Shoulders Bottom, target 119.42. BEARISH 6.4.A SPY Bottom Shape: Could be another leg down to test the low.  0.0.8 SPX:CPCE: A top was confirmed. 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): 14 unfilled gaps. (max was 15) 1.1.0 Nasdaq Composite (Daily): *8 unfilled gaps. (max was 9) 2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume: Too high, topped? CONCLUSION

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model 02/26 L breakeven Reversal Bar 02/26 L breakeven NYMO Sell       VIX MA ENV

OTHER ETFs TREND COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ   Black bar, could pullback. IWM   ChiOsc too high. CHINA   *Big red bar usually means more pullback ahead. EMERGING Down CANADA *Bearish reversal bar. FINANCIALS   REITS   MATERIALS     ENERGY Down Broadening Top in the forming, the breakout direction is unknown. OIL   *Hollow red bar, could pullback. GOLD Down DOLLAR UP Head and Shoulders Bottom. ChiOsc too low. BOND Down

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: VERY CLOSE TO A TURNING POINT, NOT SURE IT’S A TOP OR BOTTOM THOUGH

 

See 03/01 Market Recap, there’re several cycles due this week or early next week, among them the 03/08 could be the most important one. The market rises into 03/08 then 03/08 could be a top while the market drops into 03/08 then 03/08 could be a bottom.

 

SHORT-TERM: A TYPICAL NFP DAY USUALLY REVERSES WHATEVER HAPPENS IN THE MORNING

 

今天没啥好说的。0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals，连着3个reversal bar，看起来不好，但是也可以看作是Head and Shoulders Bottom breakout后的consolidation，所以还不能说很bearish。Personally，我还是觉得2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume的top signal是有一定的可信度的。

 

 

明天是Non Farm Payroll day，一般规律是fade open gap，最后收盘多半和开盘反向。下面的图来自Bespoke，说的也是同样的事情。另外，statistically，明天大涨的话，下周会跌回来，明天大跌的话，下周会涨回来。还有，明天涨的话，由于本周是up on every weekday，那么下周多半是盘整，大涨的机会不大。

 

 

STOCK SCREENER:  For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in BUY mode, only LONG candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.

 

Since the intermediate-term direction is not clear, so no stock screeners from now on until the dust settles.

 

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