02/25/2010 大盘回顾 （Too soon to declare a bullish reversal）

Cobra

TREND INDICATOR MOMENTUM INDICATOR COMMENT (Click link to see chart) Long-term 3 of 3 are BUY     Intermediate 2 of 3 are BUY 5 of 6 are NEUTRAL SPY ST Model is in BUY mode Short-term 1 of 1 are BUY 8 of 8 are NEUTRAL

BULLISH BEARISH 6.4.A SPY Bottom Shape: Could be another leg down to test the low.  0.0.8 SPX:CPCE: A top was confirmed. 1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min): *12 unfilled up gaps. 6.4.7 NYSE Tick Watch (60 min): A little too long without -1,000 readings. CONCLUSION

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE STOP LOSS INSTRUCTION: Mechanic signals, back test is HERE, signals are HERE. TRADING VEHICLE: SSO/SDS, UPRO/SPXU ST Model     *Long if up day tomorrow. Reversal Bar     *Long if up day tomorrow. NYMO Sell       VIX MA ENV

OTHER ETFs TREND COMMENT – *New update. Click BLUE to see chart if link is not provided. QQQQ   IWM   ChiOsc too high. CHINA Down Double Top. EMERGING Down *Hollow red bar, could rebound. CANADA *Bullish reversal, could rebound. FINANCIALS Down REITS   MATERIALS   *Hollow red bar, could rebound. ENERGY Down Broadening Top in the forming, the breakout direction is unknown. OIL   ChiOsc too high. *Hollow red bar, could rebound. GOLD Down *Bullish reversal, could rebound. DOLLAR UP Head and Shoulders Bottom. *Multiple reversal bars, could pullback. BOND Down *Doji testing up price channel. Could pullback.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE

 

See 02/19/2010 Market Recap, not sure about the market direction, in wait and see mode.

 

SHORT-TERM: COULD BE ANOTHER REVERSAL DAY TOMORROW

 

0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals，现在大家都知道hollow red bar意味着reversal了，不过很遗憾今天的reversal bar很难说是top还是bottom。

 

 

0.0.5 QQQQ Short-term Trading Signals，同样，很难说是top还是bottom。

 

 

3.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Daily)，再举个例子，top or bottom？

 

 

所以结论是要看明天是否strong up。Again，很遗憾，明天strong up的可能性不是很大，三个理由：

 

1.0.2 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 60 min)，ChiOsc too high。这个indicator很少有失误的时候，too high往往意味着4个小时的pullback。

 

 

1.0.9 SPX Cycle Watch (60 min)，明天有2个cycle due，早上高开的话，除了ChiOsc too high会pullback以外，cycle看起来也象是top的样子。除非明天大大低开。

 

 

看一下这个统计：Recovery Days Revisited，也是说明天可能open high close low。为了报告的完整性，我把统计图贴在下面，不过the credit belongs to www.tradingtheodds.com。

 

 

The bottom line，02/24 Market Recap提到了，根据1.0.7 SPX Cycle Watch (Daily) and 1.0.8 SPX Cycle Watch (Moon Phases)，下周有很多cycle due date，是bottom还是top，全看明天和下周一market怎么走了，现在无法知道。

 

 

6.4.7 NYSE Tick Watch (60 min)，这个图，有人问，看一下，明天还没有-1,000 readings的话，那就是图上longest streak了。

 

 

STOCK SCREENER:  For fun only, I may not actually trade the screeners. Since SPY ST Model is in BUY mode, only LONG candidates are listed. For back test details as well as how to confirm the entry and set stop loss please read HERE. Please make sure you understand the basic risk management HERE.

 

Since the intermediate-term direction is not clear, so no stock screeners from now on until the dust settles.

 

萧秋水

SOFA

baker

thanks a lot

happyface

sofa

萧秋水

^_^,头一次抢到蛇大的沙发,看来今年我要走运啦!!

atrader

thanks
噢，近三天一起看似吊死鬼啊

epsom

Thanks a lot

impresario100

farshine

ut1984

fead

ding!

surya

thx!

ppteam

X中国陆军

Cool

X中国陆军

牛熊

First page!

ddr

newbee168

报告班长，这ChiOsc indicator对个股也是很准的！

Cobra

thanks
噢，近三天一起看似吊死鬼啊
atrader 发表于 2010-2-25 20:31

That's right, this is how 3 day chart looks like.

Bencat