蛙眼看盘02-17-10

氢氧化钠

A warning to bull?

My thoughts:

1. Volume is still decreasingly low. The divergence of volume with price trend concerns me.
2. A star pattern might in the forming. A star pattern is a three-day candle stick pattern that starts with a substantial market move (white/black candle), a much smaller candle that gap up/down in the subsequent day (color not important), then followed by a substantial move in opposite direction (black/white). Ideally but not necessarily, the third day candle gaps away from the second one. The psychological implication is similar to island top/bottom. A star pattern is usually a potent sign of impending top to short-term trend, especially around resistance/support area.

In the graph below, I identify a couple of "evening star" patterns in recent months (and two morning stars on the left portion of the graph), all of them indicate a halt from short-term trend. Note, that "evening star" is a warning sign to liquidate long position, not necessarily a sign to initiate short position. Note also, that an "evening star" pattern, it need to confirmed by the third candle. A price soar at the third day (a white candle with substantial body) will negate the effect of incomplete "evening star" pattern. However, if the third day ends up with a doji or spinning top with small real body, then the effect of incomplete "evening star" is still in play.


Therefore, we will need to see how bear and bull reflex their muscle to decide how the market move tomorrow. My guess is the market will trade side-way till OE Friday, then a small pull-back before going north.

green_aapl

Nice work, Thx NaOH!

1# 氢氧化钠

X中国陆军

oldpigwang

'"then a small pull-back before going north"
Hw small?please.

lwjnbtx

Thanks!

氢氧化钠

'"then a small pull-back before going north"
Hw small?please.
oldpigwang 发表于 2010-2-17 20:44

we suppose u r asking a question. honestly, i don't know. let's see what will happen during the rest of the week.

Jeff

thanks

COS

weigoodone01

acoust

风信子

epsom

Thanks

wnd4

ding

源济

trender

thanks

busywind

thanks

jiangnanhao

16# busywind

thx

slcgh

xnz

thanks

jack3400

thnxs