trading不是玩高概率事件吗？偶confused了

soulvirus

刚才mab在lite老大的帖子里说weekly图图很bearish，偶干脆把图贴上来， 给大家看看。这叫bearish， 干脆别玩了。存CD去。

还有那个rosemary， 你提醒得没错， 股市里没任何事情是sure的， 小心没错。 但是你用一些个例来说明问题， 那算不算玩小概率事件哈。 你一个例子偶可以有50个例子来反驳哦。

上图， 大家自己看

jayceezhong

同意00

Cruiser

我也希望是这样，还剩下的少量中概舱位已经水下不少了。

但是股市里太明显的高概率事件往往会变成低概率的。这个reversal来得太早，散户还没来得及割肉，抄底的倒是不少，可疑。

soulvirus

偶也怕呀。 就怕班长说， 太多证据表明要向上， 所以不会上。

其实大家去媒体看， bearish的居多。

我也希望是这样，还剩下的少量中概舱位已经水下不少了。

但是股市里太明显的高概率事件往往会变成低概率的。这个reversal来得太早，散户还没来得及割肉，抄底的倒是不少，可疑。
Cruiser 发表于 2010-2-6 11:27

spo

粉红色的箭头，是bullish？

soulvirus

pink arrow is used to show the BB direction

Diver

刚才mab在lite老大的帖子里说weekly图图很bearish，偶干脆把图贴上来， 给大家看看。这叫bearish， 干脆别玩了。存CD去。

还有那个rosemary， 你提醒得没错， 股市里没任何事情是sure的， 小心没错。 但是你用一些个例来说明问题， 那算不算玩小概率事件哈。 你一个例子偶可以有50个例子来反驳哦。

上图， 大家自己看



本主题由 Cobra 于 1 小时前 soulvirus 发表于 2010-2-6 11:15

风清扬

1# soulvirus


如果trending down， 股价一定会贴着bb下轨走的。不过如果周线第一次收盘在bb下轨附近的话（spy103左右）， 看了看近10年的数据， 反弹的概率高

mab

刚才mab在lite老大的帖子里说weekly图图很bearish，偶干脆把图贴上来， 给大家看看。这叫bearish， 干脆别玩了。存CD去。

还有那个rosemary， 你提醒得没错， 股市里没任何事情是sure的， 小心没错。 但是你用一些 ...
soulvirus 发表于 2010-2-6 11:15

20 MA was broken last week and confirmed this week on weekly chart, which means there will be more downside movement. Of course we will experience bounces during this process. I also entered a small long position on Friday and I set a tight stop in case the expected bounce is not coming.
Just follow Croba's signal, catch the trend and overcome the mental obstacle (I am still working on that). To be honest, I entered short too early and exited too early. I should have kept my short position.
Just my 2 cents.

hutong9

guyuxiao

Rosemary1

1# soulvirus


to defend myself, or to explain:
I am always cautious, maybe too cautious. I am fine with that. You should have your own risk tolerance level.
I was not comfortable that everybody was talking about the hammer. Again, being cautious does not hurt, even you want to get long. Being over euphoria is not good at all.

Rosemary1

1# soulvirus


You can find a lot of such examples in the last 2 years, where a hammer did not work. In a down trend, it happens a lot, until the last one at the end of the down trend.