01/11/2010 大盘回顾 （Pullback?）

Cobra

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT – Click links to see chart or visit my public chart list. Long-term Up     Intermediate Up Neutral 3.0.0 TNX: Top in a month? 8.1.0 Normalized NYTV: Topped? 12/31 Recap: II and AAII survey both show extremely low # of bears. 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Multiple resistances and breadth very overbought. Short-term Up Neutral 1.0.2 SPY: 15 unfilled gaps. 01/04 Recap: Too many bearish extremes. 0.0.3 SPX: *CPC and CPCE MA10 are too low. 0.0.1 Top/Bottom Watch: NYDNV is too low.  0.0.5 QQQQ: Black bar, the 1st prophecy fulfilled, so top is close? 0.0.9 Put Call Ratio: *too extreme, top could be very close. 0.0.2 SPY: *Black bar was bearish in the past.

CONCLUSION Signals presented in the short-term comment area are enough to justify a short selling. *Shorted today on SPY black bar and QQQQ/IWM bearish reversal bar. It is a countertrend trade, be careful.

SPY SETUP ENTRY DATE INSTRUCTION STOP LOSS Mechanic trading signals, details are HERE.  Take profit whenever you see appropriate. ST Model 12/21 L 12/31 Low Added 0.0.4 SPY Mechanical Trading Model into my public chart list so that you can get some visual feelings about this trading model. Reversal Bar     NYMO Sell     VIX ENV

WATCH LIST COMMENT – *New update, they may not be mentioned in the report. Click links to see more details. IWM & QQQQ 4.1.2 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM Weekly) : Breakout but STO is too high may pullback soon. 1.3.0 Russell 2000 iShares (IWM Daily): *Bearish reversal bar doesn’t look good.  EMERGING 1.4.0 Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (Daily): Big red bar means more downside ahead. FINANCIALS 4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): The breakout looks good, next target 15.70. REITS 3.6.0 Real Estate iShares (IYR Daily): On multiple support, could rebound.  OIL & ENERGY 3.4.0 United States Oil Fund, LP (USO Daily): Breakout then consolidation so could be up more. GOLD DOLLAR 3.1.0 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily): Could be a Bull Flag in the forming. BOND 4.2.0 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Weekly): STO too low. 3.0.1 20 Year Treasury Bond Fund iShares (TLT Daily): *Hammer plus channel support. Bond could rebound, but overall it’s in a downtrend.

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: EXPECT HEADWIND AHEAD

 

No update, watch 4.1.0 S&P 500 Large Cap Index (Weekly) for overhead target/resistance and 4.0.4 Dow Theory: Averages Must Confirm for overbought breadth signals.

 

SHORT-TERM: EXPECT PULLBACK SOON

 

今天的After Bell Quick Summary建议看看，如果统计数据以及过去几周的pattern repeats的话，本周很可能是weekly红棒棒。

 

0.0.9 Extreme Put Call Ratio Watch, 今天又是top signal。

 

 

0.0.2 SPY Short-term Trading Signals，看看黑棒棒后都发生了什么？

 

 

0.0.3 SPX Intermediate-term Trading Signals, CPCE MA10更extreme了。

 

 

再看看QQQQ Bearish Reversal Bar以后都发生了什么？

 

 

2.0.0 Volatility Index (Daily)，VIX bar open and close both are out of BB is very rare。以前发生同样的事情是：4/9/2009, 11/16/2006, 8/18/2006, 8/16/2006, 9/12/2005, 4/12/2005, 4/11/2005, 12/22/2004。基本上此后不久都发生了pullback。

 

 

6.2.3 VIX:VXV Trading Signals，介个图，有兴趣地看看吧，VIX:VXV new low了，介是说预期三个月后的volatility会比现在高很多，因此是bearish的意思。  

 

 

INTERESTING CHARTS:

 

6.4.5 GLD and UUP Watch, GLD black bar so UUP rebound tomorrow?

 

PacificLegend

terranmn

Alchemist

raise3

michaelzhang

LLN

Billyboy

Thanks

windy

Thanks

ddr

happylux

最近三大指数不太同步。

buctusa

buctusa

Cobra, is VXX a buy?

rosyrosy

yaobooyao

今天美元的大跌看起来挺真的，技术图形上看美元12月以来的升势似乎已经触顶，今天的破位跳空下跌很熊，这也许对股市是好事，股指可能又来一个浅回调敷衍了事。

今天VIX 这么个空心红烛掉在BB线外，真的看不懂，往常大盘通常次日就顶反转的厉害。

temujin

thanks

abbozzo

Thank you.

happyface

thanks

Ave

epsom

Thanks a lot