SPY to drop 50%??

wuyouren

I was watching Bloomberg new 10 minutes ago.  In the news, an analyst said that volume surges on options betting S&P500 ETF will drop 50%...  There are four surges including one happened yesterday.

Also he mentioned that former citi TA shaw said that US Bear Market to last 10 years....

What I think is that since the media makes the information public, does that mean MM will squeeze all those bets by making S&P new highs?...

Diver

wuyouren

what I don't quite understand is that why he said those volume surges are linked directly or indirectly to the price level that bets SPY to drop 50%?...  

Maybe some lao da can give a quick explanation?

dara

completely BS.

the chance to up 50%(1650) is 1Billion X higher than drop 50%(550).

soulvirus

女人骂街就是牛x

completely BS.

the chance to up 50%(1650) is 1Billion X higher than drop 50%(550).
dara 发表于 2009-12-10 18:31

yingying

completely BS.

the chance to up 50%(1650) is 1Billion X higher than drop 50%(550).
dara 发表于 2009-12-10 18:31

nod nod. Unless the earth explodes someday and no human being exists then no stock market.

NZX

嘿嘿,记得前几个月有人嚷嚷580来着,现在消失了.

wuyouren

Maybe da lao can explain to a frog like me why option markets have those volume surges to bet a 50% off?  He did show the chart, he did point out the bets are spy will drop to $56... except I don't understand his chart and my guts feeling does not believe it....

But would like to know why?

yingying

Maybe da lao can explain to a frog like me why option markets have those volume surges to bet a 50% off?  He did show the chart, he did point out the bets are spy will drop to $56... except I don't un ...
wuyouren 发表于 2009-12-10 18:59

Do you know which month what strike please? And how can that guy know it is a put buying instead of selling?

wuyouren

He said those surges are $55 puts

源济

wuyouren

He did mention it does not necessary means a 50% drop, but it can be a substantial drop...

CoolMax

He said those surges are $55 puts
wuyouren 发表于 2009-12-10 07:05 PM

Which months?

wuyouren

Which months?
CoolMax 发表于 2009-12-10 19:08

He did not mention......

wuyouren

I assume you guys who have option trading account can find that out?

CoolMax

He did not mention......
wuyouren 发表于 2009-12-10 07:18 PM

这个很重要啊。

temujin

Looks like there was huge volume in the DEC 2010 55 puts, not sure if that's the one.

CoolMax

Looks like there was huge volume in the DEC 2010 55 puts, not sure if that's the one.
temujin 发表于 2009-12-10 07:29 PM

What's the price and volume?

dara

女人骂街就是牛x


soulvirus 发表于 2009-12-10 18:40

stop attacking me

temujin

From yahoo finance:
Strike        Symbol        Last        Chg                        Bid          Ask              Vol               Open Int
55.00        CYUXC.X        0.60        Down 0.01        0.59          0.63        48,577        119,073