股市诊脉 11-19-09 BY 游击队长

ypm968

S&P 500        1094.90        -14.90        -1.34%
  Dow Indu        10332.44        -93.87        -0.90%
  Nasdaq Comp        2156.82        -36.31        -1.66%
  Russell 2000        585.68        -14.47        -2.41%
  NYSE Comp        7117.64        -109.06        -1.51%
  CRB Index        274.27        -3.26        -1.17%
  Dollar Index        75.27        +0.09        +0.11%

In an interview in China yesterday President Obama warned that a double-dip recession is possible if the U.S. does not get public finances under control.
He said, “It is important to recognize that if we keep on adding to the debt, even in the midst of this recovery, that at some point people could lose confidence in the US economy in a double-dip recession.”

The MBA reports that in Q3 the seasonally adjusted delinquency rate rose to 9.64 percent of all loans outstanding, up 40 basis points from Q2. Loans in the foreclosure process rose to 4.47 percent, up 17 basis points from Q2. Add it up and 14.41% of all loans in the U.S. are either delinquent or in foreclosures.
Jobless claims came in at 505,000, a little more than the 504,000 that was forecast.

房市到底了吗？政府的拯救房市措施Loan modification, 延长$8000 tax credit, keeping interest rate artificially low真能救得了房市吗？It is all about JOBS! 没工作，房子在便宜你也买不起！失业率还在增加，尽管CNBC老说less than expected, rate of change is slowing， blah, blah, blah, 从3月rally开始，一直说到现在，S&P 都涨了67%了，失业率还在增加. This market is pricing a V shape recovery. 但是我个人认为是W或者U型的recovery. 现在就好像今年年初一样大家什么也不想，也不愿意想，只盼望着早点把股票卖掉少赔点，现在刚好相反，大家都盼着多买点股票，好把过去赔的都补回来。很多人认为股市ovoerbought, 但是往往股市还会继续overbought, 时间久了就成泡沫了，直到有一天大家注意经济基本面并没有那么好，泡沫就破了。

短期： Bearish
中期： Bullish
S&P 500
Resistances: 1100, 1113
Supports: 1075 (20-day MA), 1069 (50-day MA)
S&P 500: 今天很明显， 狗熊们把老牛们打散了。狗熊们蓄势待发一开盘就向老牛们发起猛烈进攻把1100的战壕攻下来了。只用了半个小时就攻打到1090， 等老牛们反应过来组织反攻，为时已晚最后收在1195点 10天均线上。
Dollar今天还是横向调整接近20天均线就拉回了，$75是Lehman Brother倒掉前的价位。 这个价位会不会成为美元的“NEW NORMAL"价位哪？
Oil今天拉回了很多， trading range是76.5-82.
VIX比较有意思，spiked up then pulled back significantly.  
Nasdaq很bearish， 60分钟图上出了个Island top. 今天Merrill Lynch downgraded chip sector.









大市中期的趋势正在在转变。 高科技， 能源， 金融的股票是这波从3月开始的牛市的领头羊。 但是从十月中金融和能源的股票就开始underperform S&P，今天chip sector又被downgrade, 加上盘后DELL报的业绩不好，看样子高科技股也有点悬。 没有leadership的股票市场，就像打仗的时候有兵没将一样。 如果高科技， 能源， 金融的股票都underperform S&P，那就到顶了。

我今天的trade，pattern比较好， 只给大家参考

Flag, sell short, trailing stop 6%

Flag, sell short, trailing stop 6%

Head&shoulders, sell short, stop $7.75

想发

SF? Yes. Ding 队长!

happyface

thanks for sharing.

abaqus

thanks,

yifan

4# abaqus


THANKK YOU!

rosyrosy

bucks

great analysis

yaobooyao

nice trades.

有没有好的铜类公司介绍？

great charts.

ypm968

8# yaobooyao

I prefer copper etf JJC.

Copper Stocks (*COPPR)
Ticker        Last Trade        Today's Change        Volume         % of
Daily        Mkt Cap         % off
52wk lw        % from
52wk hg        Alerts
FCX        $84.72        +0.03        0.0%        14,447,024        96%        $34.8B        440%        -2%        1 Alert (0 News) - View
MADKY        $6.70        +0.17        +2.6%        1,155        16%        $36.9B        47%        -18%        1 Alert (0 News) - View
PCU        $34.96        -0.32        -0.9%        2,806,964        92%        $29.9B        283%        -4%        1 Alert (0 News) - View
SLT        $17.88        -0.91        -4.8%        1,306,952        45%        $13.3B        357%        -8%        1 Alert (0 News) - View
TGB        $3.32        -0.05        -1.5%        1,631,959        66%        $516.2M        504%        -3%        1 Alert (0 News) - View
WIRE        $20.08        -0.58        -2.8%        120,162        86%        $475.1M        49%        -18%         No Alerts/News

windy

拜读了。

hifive

yaobooyao

8# yaobooyao

I prefer copper etf JJC.

Copper Stocks (*COPPR)
Ticker        Last Trade        Today's Change        Volume         % of
Daily        Mkt Cap         % off
52wk lw        % from
52wk hg        Alerts
FCX        $84.72        +0.03        0.0%        14 ...
ypm968 发表于 2009-11-19 22:07

Thank you.  Will look into it.

trender

ding

wnd4

ding

Niubao

Thanks 队长。 Like your report.

busywind

thanks

zeru001

Thanks!

墙头草

dddd

final_fantasy

btmarket

Thanks.