09/18/2009 白天灌水

Cobra

糊涂了，SPY显示是低开，咋指数都是绿的哈。不管了，反正今天OE，啥事情都可能发生。

 

 

Chart B:  Liquidity Inflows and Outflows

Liquidity inflows are critical to the market's action.   If indicators are weakening while Liquidity is flowing in, then the liquidity inflow will take precedence and hold the market up.    Liquidity inflows had a down tick while in extreme high territory.  This remains a very high reading, so we could see some unusually high volatility in the markets when profit taking starts to come into play.

 

Chart C:  Institutional Accumulation/Distribution

The Institutional Investors were in Accumulation with the Buy/Sell spread decreasing.  Institutional buying decreased, and Institutional selling increased.  Note that Institutional Buying still has a Negative Divergence between the August peak and yesterday.

*** Conclusion on the above charts:  Liquidity is still flowing in, so the run-up is still being fed.  The major indexes are showing MACD negative divergences building which have been offset by very high short term RSI readings.  Conditions are still net positive with the market entering a phase where it is notably overvalued and overbought. 

ice_tea

zao shafa

purety

ding

ninemao

I am 1st. first time. Morning!班长。

Seawave

:)

weigoodone01

weigoodone01

dividend day for SPY!

ninemao

班长，今天又是一个好日子。

trueself

。
白抢
9喽。。。

早

impossible is possible

happylux

Cobra

Since the March low, the spread has reached -33% four times other than yesterday (May 8th, June 11th, August 4th and August 12th).  During the following week, the most the S&P was able to gain at its best point averaged +0.6% while the most it lost over the next week averaged -3.3%.  All four lost at least -1% during the next week and only one (barely) gained more than +1% at any point.



This is obviously pretty short-term stuff, and doesn't say much of anything about the intermediate-term that's any different from what we've seen since May.  It's just another indication that the current push to the upper end of the trend channel formed over the past few months is more likely to fail in the coming days than not.  If it doesn't fail, then about the only conclusion I could draw is a parabolic upside move similar to what we witnessed in December 2003-January 2004.

hifi

被踩死的小螞蟻

Cobra

Out of 25 instances since 1982 that the S&P futures closed at a six-month high the day before expiration then gapped up expiration morning, 15 of them coincided with a short-term peak with more weakness than strength the following week, 7 of them rose a bit over the next week, but then gave back the gains within another couple of days, and only 3 of them just kept rising.  Given the status of our indicators, that latter case again seems the most unlikely.

Cobra

dividend day for SPY!
weigoodone01 发表于 2009-9-18 09:01

I see, thanks.

hifi

NZX

sjxzl87

thanks

daxiong

Zao!

linksys2006

thanks, Cobra.