Summary:
Expect at least a short-term pullback.
今天盘后的Quick Summary内容比较多,基本晚上的report已经没啥新鲜的了。总结一下:
1. 这两天的反弹比较弱,特别是明天牛牛如果不能high过SPX 927的话,很大可能这是个sell-able bounce。这里有个关于weak rebound的统计:Poor Rebound Breadth Not A Good Sign。
2. 明天如果gap up的话,将是SPY的第8个gap,俺不认为能hold。
3. 关于FOMC(Not the same chart posted in the after bell summary),自2007年10月开始的这一轮熊市,FOMC和其next day是反向关系,这就是说明天可能收红。
以下是www.sentimentrader.com的intraday model,especially Nasdaq已经非常接近overbought了,因此明天如果大涨,熊熊大约不需要尿裤子。
7.7.9 Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships,1095 stocks price up volume down,bearish,这一轮pullback,price-volume relationships so far都是bearish的。
今天Tech很强,不过有两个图提醒大家一下:
2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume,对于NATV:NYTV ratio过高会引起啥后果,大家应该记忆犹新吧?
5.0.2 S&P Sector Bullish Percent Index,Tech依然超买。
最后,借用一下Telechart的Don Worden的summary:
My personal gut feel (subject to minute-by-minute change) is that the May lows will be violated and that the market will slip into an Intermediate Downtrend. I think that will be a healthy thing and that the March low will not be violated, probably not even tested.
俺猜,Don Worden是expect a Head and Shoulders Bottom,而现在market是在做right shoulder,which is exactly the same as John Murphy is expecting...
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