06/24/2009 大盘回顾 （FOMC and the day after）

Cobra

Summary:

Expect at least a short-term pullback.

	Trend	Momentum	Comments - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term	Down		Idea for trading intermediate-term under primary down trend.
Intermediate	Down	Neutral
Short-term	Down	Neutral

 

今天盘后的Quick Summary内容比较多，基本晚上的report已经没啥新鲜的了。总结一下：

 

1. 这两天的反弹比较弱，特别是明天牛牛如果不能high过SPX 927的话，很大可能这是个sell-able bounce。这里有个关于weak rebound的统计：Poor Rebound Breadth Not A Good Sign。

 

2. 明天如果gap up的话，将是SPY的第8个gap，俺不认为能hold。

 

3. 关于FOMC（Not the same chart posted in the after bell summary），自2007年10月开始的这一轮熊市，FOMC和其next day是反向关系，这就是说明天可能收红。

 

以下是www.sentimentrader.com的intraday model，especially Nasdaq已经非常接近overbought了，因此明天如果大涨，熊熊大约不需要尿裤子。

 

7.7.9 Russell 3000 Dominant Price-Volume Relationships，1095 stocks price up volume down，bearish，这一轮pullback，price-volume relationships so far都是bearish的。

 

今天Tech很强，不过有两个图提醒大家一下：

 

2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume，对于NATV:NYTV ratio过高会引起啥后果，大家应该记忆犹新吧？

 

5.0.2 S&P Sector Bullish Percent Index，Tech依然超买。

 

最后，借用一下Telechart的Don Worden的summary：

My personal gut feel (subject to minute-by-minute change) is that the May lows will be violated and that the market will slip into an Intermediate Downtrend. I think that will be a healthy thing and that the March low will not be violated, probably not even tested.

俺猜，Don Worden是expect a Head and Shoulders Bottom，而现在market是在做right shoulder，which is exactly the same as John Murphy is expecting...

 

temujin

thanks

haohao

safa

ybgx

haohao

WOW!! 这么靠前。。 第一次。。

Lynxx

haohao

嘻嘻， 把地下室也占了

Billyboy

Ding

noob

Ding!

supsucc

1# Cobra

You guys are too quick.

IMeMyself

first page

JL01

Bigmouth

First page?

windflower

first page

cartier

Bigmouth

h-1

colderdown

1sr page

lite1067

DING !!

slowisfast