本帖最后由 jsl 于 2009-6-23 18:44 编辑
The focus of the market is also the focus of the Fed;
the focus of the Fed is what the market will focus on.
1. Green shoot and economic outlook
2. dollar, inflation and exit strategy
People want to hear that the green shoot is real just like a dying man want to see an oasis even if it is most likely to be a mirage. We live with hope not desperation. They want the Fed to cheer them up during this agonizing recession. Though they can hardly believe it themselves, positive means positive.
However, as everyone understands how sever this recession is, it would be comforting to known that the Fed will continue the life support for some more time with the promise that dollar will stay status quo, inflation will be in check, exit strategy is on the way. Oops, it is a lie, isn't it? Well, nobody knows what will happen, so it is not a lie especially with a few words such as 'probably'.
If the Fed delivers a message of the above sort, the market will be calm.
If the Fed is very positive on the economy, it will suprise the market and trigger a massive short covering, yield will shoot up.
If the Fed shows too much caution, market will drop, dollar will drop. |