06/05/2009 大盘回顾 （Beware of rising yield and US$）

Cobra

Summary:

Several "no good" signs get worse, better wait until dust clears.

Expect at least a short-term pullback, may not start on Monday though.

	Trend	Momentum	Comments - Sample for using the trend table.
Long-term	Down		Idea for trading intermediate-term under primary down trend.
Intermediate	Up	Overbought*
Short-term	Up	Neutral

 

周五有两个event值得注意：

1. 3.0.0 10Y T-Bill Yield，TNX向上breakout了。这意味着借贷成本的提高，对经济复苏不利。

2. 3.1.0 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP Daily)，大反弹。这不仅意味着commodity会跌，也意味着资金fly to safety。

这两个combination，需要继续观察，持续下去的话，俺不认为股市还有多大的上升空间。

 

 

Short-term，expect a pullback，不过不确定是否从Monday就开始。

 

1.0.3 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY 30 min)，negative divergence太多了。

 

1.1.5 PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQQ 30 min)，Bearish Rising Wedge plus lots of negative divergence。

 

5.0.2 S&P Sector Bullish Percent Index，overbought again，上次overbought是5月初，因此5月份大盘盘整了一个月。

 

2.3.4 Nasdaq Total Volume/NYSE Total Volume，这个有点高了，也就是说对risk的追捧也许可能大概有点过了。

 

不确定是否Monday就pullback的理由：

 

7.0.7 SPX and VIX Divergence Watch，SPX and VIX down on the same day意味着周一会涨。

 

3.1.1 PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (UUP 30 min)，米金overbought了，周一可能pullback，这对大盘有利。

 

结论，就是monday如果涨了，不要觉得又miss了train，现在不是greedy的时候，market may very close to a turnning point，下面的图，供参考。

 

f117

safa! many thanks!

rocky

bench. first time :)

Anita

thanks!

OrangeTea

Fig

bandeng

latitude

thanks

Lemontree

THX.

Maylin

soulvirus

tnnd，又是光顾灌水没抢沙发了，哭

谢谢班长

GnGSystem

老大要不要考虑中国的因素？

GnGSystem

顶

snowwolf229

aurora99

thanks

cheyenne

thanks

snowwolf229

hithere

when bond starts to rebound (rate goes down), money will flow out of stock and go to bond. Dollar will soon temporarily stop falling, but bond rate won't stop climbing until inflation fear is completely out of way which i don't see it's coming within a year. However, early next week is a little tricky as gov will announce new stimulus plans, and banks announce having raised enough funds, it could be used by MM to speculate one more time.

xiaoyaoxl

顶

claudio