I admit I missed this rally

n748

Yes, I sold my positions too early. I sold after the first day of 6% gain, and sold each day that followed until sold all at 750.
Lots of my position were sold at a loss. Hoping for a pullback to get back in.

It have not happended so far, and chances are very slim to get below 750. At least it seems not very likely, if not impossible. Actually lots of people are saying we may not see the low in our life time.

People are talking about 900, I know when it reaches that, they will talk about 1000. Yes, an uptrend market has no limit, we can go 2000, 3000, each 10, 000 for SP. mathematically it's not a big deal to add a zero (just kidding).

I heard people were talking about 600, when I all in at 680. My mistake was not that I baught a little too early. If I've hold all my positions, I would've won big this year.

My mistake is I sold too early since I never expect this rally will be this big, especially this fast without meaningful pullback.

Now my 20% position in SDS is in deep water, I'm making the same mistake I made on long side (buying too early). This time it's buy short position too early.

It takes Gnut to hold short position in this very bullish market. Most people will laugh at you.

But still, I want to remind myself, remember you sold 5000 FAS at 2.4x, with big losses? Do you want to do it again with your SDS position at 70?

Remember you believed those analysts' claim that 750 was the bottom (mid-term) so you started to accumulate from 780?
Rember you were suprised by the breakthrough of 700, but you continued to add long position when people were talking about 600?
Remember you were desparate when it broke 680 and kept moving down?

Didn't it rebounded a little later?
Shouldn't you have made big money if you could simply hold on this positions?

Do you want to make a similar mistake, on the other side this time?

Should you add more short position? instead of panicking?
Should you remind yourself that don't cover too early, be greedy for a big profit?

Is it a wishful thinking? However about economy is still fundamentally terrible?

You did not see 800 was coming, actually you did not expect it could break 780, but now it sits at close to 850.

Is it terrible to see 900? is it a good opportunity to add more SDS at that level?

Do you believe it will 750? or even lower, say, 700?
Is it possible to see 666 broken some day?

What are you scared of? Is it possible that bull market really have come back, started on March 9? Do you believe it?

Ask yourself, why did you enter the SDS position at the time? Anything changed since then that you have to change your mind?

My last mistake was that I failed to stay with my original plan because I was scared by the market, so that I sold my position too early, and many of them were even sold at a loss.

Should I do it differently to avoid same mistake made on the other side?

Bears, the next several days (weeks), MMs will try everything they can to scare you.

will

Great

Maylin

  I will add my shorts little by little until the bears return!!!

buctusa

Support you!

tree

做多和做空完全不同。 只要信念坚定， 做多是可以挺过去了。 做空却没几个挺得过去。

rim

I fully understang n748's feeling. I have been in this kind of self questioning many times in the past year.

One thing to keep in mind though--- what we have just experienced is history in the making--- the worst bear market since the great depression, followed by the strongest rebound in 70 years. It is truely once in a life time experience.  Will this kind of absurdly violent movement, which is beyond most people's wildest imagination, happen again in the near future?  Maybe, but just maybe.

So here is my point --- while we should cherish this experience and be happy that we "survived" , though not without wounds --- we probably should not use this unique experience to guide our future trading and investment.

revolver

Great post!

gldloser

顶要有自己的看法

lilyflower

while we should cherish this experience and be happy that we "survived" , though not without wounds --- we probably should not use this unique experience to guide our future trading and investment.
Thanks for you.
We hang on together

yam

做多和做空完全不同。 只要信念坚定， 做多是可以挺过去了。 做空却没几个挺得过去。
tree 发表于 2009-4-4 01:50

做多和做空完全不同。 只要信念坚定， 做多是可以挺过去了。 做空却没几个挺得过去。 （当然不能买到那种要死了的票，如LEH， NT）

hanktuphy

Not a big deal, tons of chances in the market if you get the direction correct, look back for studying, look forward for trading

aurora99

I feel the same. Market is not ATM for every one.

mat123

Fully support and fantastic post!!!

coexist

"Bears, the next several days (weeks), MMs will try everything they can to scare you."
agree

ccloafer

顶. 写得很好. 我高点做空就早早出来了, 发誓下轮牛市再也不重复类似错误了. 结果这回又早早出来了. 问题是现在是牛市么? 如果是牛市我就坚决再杀入直到下个熊市. 可惜现实就是这么无奈, 你永远不知道下面等着你的是牛还是熊. 我们能做得只有思维多元化, 操作多元化.

lwjnbtx

Ding! It is not easy to guess the bottom or top, it is not easy to follow the trend. What is a trend anyway? How can you tell there is a trend? By the time you see a clear sign of the trend, it might be too late to ride it. So guessing is no good. Sometimes, it is just like gambling, not a matter of how you put down your chip, but depends on how you can get out of it. you get out right, you win, you get out wrong, you lose.

Bigmouth

Lionking

Somebody, a good thief is not because how much he can steal, but how fast he can escape. I think that's exactly correct in market. Nobody can tell the future. Everybody will make mistakes.  But if you can always keep loss small, you are the winner!

gimy

good writing. thanks.

snowlover

Ding