economic cycles

nmr

I was trying to find this from previous posts as someone posted this before and eventually got it by google it. it looks like we will have a quite long way to go before we we see a new bull.  

恐慌小猪

Brainteaser

好图阿。

但是偶们现在处于bonds up 的阶段。。。。才刚开跌？

lite1067

原帖由 Brainteaser 于 2008-12-27 16:22 发表 好图阿。 但是偶们现在处于bonds up 的阶段。。。。才刚开跌？

好像bonds up快结束了。。。下面就是stock up？

冬天已经来了，春天还会远吗

Brainteaser

原帖由 lite1067 于 2008-12-27 16:28 发表 好像bonds up快结束了。。。下面就是stock up？冬天已经来了，春天还会远吗

图上的意思，bonds down 之后一轮大跌。

oldfairy

原帖由 Brainteaser 于 2008-12-27 16:34 发表 图上的意思，bonds down 之后一轮大跌。

 

是不是位置看错了？应该是financial bottom在bonds up之后。按照这个图，对照spx，05/2010后开始一轮拉升，之前也许有反复驻地的过程

neutral

3X!

Fan8an

好轮盘, 清楚明了.

Brainteaser

原帖由 oldfairy 于 2008-12-27 18:43 发表   是不是位置看错了？应该是financial bottom在bonds up之后。按照这个图，对照spx，05/2010后开始一轮拉升，之前也许有反复驻地的过程

偶有同样的疑问, 先听听LZ怎么说.

用偶的poor 常识来看, bond market up 吸走了cash, 然后stock market 开始跌.

kosh

好象原本是说， 等金融开始好起来了， 大局就要好起来了。 这次的轮回会完全一样么？

kosh

现在是哪个板块开涨了？熊市开始后， utility 高过了么？ 我可能太新手， 觉得consumer staples才好过， 熊市才开始。

nmr

since we are still in the early or middle stage of contraction, the Nov. low is unlikely to be THE LOW of this bear market. spx around 600 maybe.

Brainteaser

原帖由 nmr 于 2008-12-27 21:03 发表 since we are still in the early or middle stage of contraction, the Nov. low is unlikely to be THE LOW of this bear market. spx around 600 maybe.

Lz 来了太好了

俺有点问题啊,

那个黑子(如 basic material energy...)的位置表示是那个section top  的位置么?

Brainteaser

还有最中间的market top, market bottom 也挺歧义的, 现在偶们虽然不再market bottom 也不应该在market top啊.

nmr

i think it means we are supposed to buy that sector during that particular period of time of economic cycle.

wyemlyy

I think it just means market has bottomed somewhere in that half, or maybe at the begining. In stead, the sectors gives description when market is up finanical is the first one. It also says commodity lags behind stock market and stock behind bonds.