More down ahead???

luckystar2006

I tried to get up before 6am to create these charts before heading out because I don't want to see any HTers on here getting trapped today (if I'm right).   I see Futures is dropping ~50pts right now and I guess some of you might try to catch a bottom here, which I think it's NOT safe yet.  Since I'm getting rush to leave, I've no time to post other charts yet.  I'll post or update more charts on this thread later tonight/tomorrow.

First chart is WEEKLY chart.  The uptrend will be broken today and this week is the first week for MACD to cross below.  It's seldom for market to reverse from here.  It's very likely to see another down leg next week.

luckystar2006

Second chart is VIX chart.  I also added NYMO to show why I don't think market will form V shape today.  NYMO will likely touch lower BB today for the first time, which is rarely over today.  In the meantime, blue BB will likely break out of red BB for the first time, which is rarely over today.  Both suggest a lower low ahead is very likely.

Besides, with Futures dropping ~50pts right now, I don't see my Futures trading system showing any sign of a bottom yet.  My short-term signals are still in 2nd stage (i.e. momentum stage) with and 3rd stage is just about to appear.

Have nice and safe trading day my friends.  

五谷

Jeff

xiaoxiao08

lite1067

thanks!

now i see market starts to panic..... this is a good news..... i am more than ready for a bounce, even it is just a deadcat bounce. 2016 will be a great year for traders.

hais

新年前没跑的不确定，新年后没跑的今年可能还有希望。

hais

同意还没跌够。

源济

非常感谢！

georgeyn

风行过

luckystar2006 发表于 2016-1-7 06:32 AM
Second chart is VIX chart.  I also added NYMO to show why I don't think market will form V shape tod ...

nice analysis. thanks.

keep up the good work.

vlo

Laoda is correct again!

luckystar2006

There are signs of market approaching a bottom soon, but I won't exclude a lower low ahead for next week.  Because it's still somewhat risky to catch a short-term bottom at this stage, I will only go in with 20% of my portfolio to buy calls tomorrow with 3-week expiration date, but cautiously.  Why I buy calls tomorrow is because below setup will likely be triggered again tomorrow (unless market continues to drop in panic mode).  Little pink circles show that when upper BB pointing upwards, it's the right time for me to go in.  However, I'll need swing signals to confirm it too.

luckystar2006

Here is what swing signals look like by market close today

lite1067

luckystar2006 发表于 2016-1-7 10:09 PM
Here is what swing signals look like by market close today

woowow. about to turn up !!!

qunzong

luckystar2006

lite1067 发表于 2016-1-7 10:34 PM
woowow. about to turn up !!!

The tricky thing for tomorrow and/or next week is that I'm 90% certain there is still at least a lower low ahead.  Not sure it'll happen tomorrow or next week.

lite1067

luckystar2006 发表于 2016-1-7 11:50 PM
The tricky thing for tomorrow and/or next week is that I'm 90% certain there is still at least a l ...

Lower than today's low?? tomorrow will be the only chance. if tomorrow we open high and close high, then the short term low is already in.

my short term bounce goal is SPX 1990-2000. no idea about afterwards...

Cobra & most sell-side TAs are looking at revisit of last Aug low.

橘子皮

橘子皮