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发表于 2014-12-5 08:19 PM
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This oil price decline actually ties into the recent Hindenburg Omen (HO) signals which were triggered this week. I was just on CNBC on Dec. 4 talking about the Hindenburg Omen, and you can see that interview here. One point to understand about that video is that headline writers like to spice things up, and in ways not necessarily consistent with the actual story, or with the views of those who are interviewed.
The reason why the oil price decline is related to the Hindenburg Omen is that HO requires seeing both New Highs (NH) and New Lows (NL) exceeding a certain number of issues on the same day. There are also some other requirements.
A cursory review of the list of stocks making new 52-week lows shows a lot of stocks with the words “drill”, “energy”, or “resources” in their company names. Were it not for the concentrated damage to energy stocks resulting from the oil price slide, we would likely not be seeing an HO signal now. Not all HOs end up seeing a big market collapse, but they do tend to show up ahead of every big market decline so they are worthy of some attention. To get a big slide now, the stock market is somehow going to have to fight off the bullish forces of positive seasonality, plentiful liquidity according to the breadth numbers, and more QE coming from other countries’ central banks. Plus we are now in the year following the mid-term elections, which is nearly always an up year.
That is a tough package of forces for the stock market bears to fight against.
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发表于 2014-12-5 04:28 PM
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