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发表于 2014-4-4 08:36 PM
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本帖最后由 bigbadwolf 于 2014-4-4 08:38 PM 编辑
Seasonality Holds Firm in 2014 $DIA $SPY $QQQ
By Christopher Mistal
Despite straying off course a few times this year, markets have tracked the midterm election year pattern reasonable well. Looking at the year-to-date performance of DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ below, it can be seen that all three indices were down in January, exactly as their respective midterm seasonal patterns projected. February was a solid month across the board, again matching the midterm pattern. However, NASDAQ strayed in March. DJIA and S&P 500 did not and produced modest gains.
If the market continues to track past midterm years reasonably closely, as they have done for the past three months, then a mid-April top and a rough May and June are likely.
Earnings (real and Q2 estimates), economic data and monetary policy will need to remain supportive in order to stave off typical Q2 & Q3 midterm year weakness.
Thus far, economic data has been soft and monetary policy is less supportive each month as the Fed continues to trim QE at each meeting.
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发表于 2014-4-4 04:07 PM
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