十天到记时，可以开赌局了。。

ctcld

-美国之音

　　投资人对于五年前雷曼兄弟破产掀起全球金融海啸可能心存余悸，但若美国未能提高举债上限，造成当局数周后违约，将对全球股市造成毁灭性冲击，后果尤甚于雷曼兄弟倒闭，成为史无前例的经济灾难。

　　虽然各界仍普遍认为美国两党会悬崖勒马，在最后关头达成提高举债上限协议，但万一协议无法达成，美国破天荒债务违约，将重创从巴西到苏黎士的全球股市，导致规模五兆美元、仰赖公债的放款机制失效，推升数十亿人与企业的借款成本，重击美元汇价，导致美国和全球经济陷入衰退，甚至可能演变为大萧条。

　　受访的货币经理人、经济学家、银行家、交易员和前政府官员都认为，美国债务违约是金融末日。美国未偿还债务达十二兆美元，是雷曼兄弟破产时五一七○亿美元债务的廿三倍。

　　若美国债务违约，附买回市场遭冻结的规模可能远甚于雷曼兄弟倒闭，因至少二点八兆美元的公债被当成附买回和附卖回贷款的担保品，若美国违约，美国公债不再能作为附买回协议的担保品，投资收益率降低和结清部位，可能扩大放款人和借款人的损失。

　　太平洋投资管理公司执行长伊尔艾朗说，若美国债务违约，可能连带使其他市场债务违约，加重全球经济成长面临的阻力，也会破坏美国在全球经济的地位。

　　尽管受访的经济学家都预期，美国这次还不会债务违约，但多数人认为，如今违约的机率比以前高，不再是零，凸显美国朝野一再陷入恶斗，已冲击市场信心。

　　部分分析师认为，若美国朝野协商拖到十七日触及举债上限的最后一刻，就可能导致股市大跌。

thyme1

too serious to let it happen, just like too big to fail.............but Lehman did go bankruptcy.  chance is very low but I will not bet on it whatsoever

bigbadwolf

Even if negotiations were to go to the brink, Cullen Roche at Pragmatic Capitalism pointed out a piece of analysis by Vincent Reinhart indicating that one of three laws will have to get broken if the debt ceiling isn't raised:
If the Treasury is unwilling to stretch the definition of extraordinary measures, on the day that the Federal Reserve predicts that the Treasury will run out of cash in its account and the Treasury is bound by the debt ceiling, it suspends all payments and awaits instructions from the Treasury. As a result, the government's principal economic officials will face the prospect of violating one of these three laws:
1. The Second Liberty Bond Act of 1917 that establishes the debt ceiling;
2. The Federal Reserve Act that prohibits the Fed from lending directly to the Treasury; or,
3. The 14th Amendment of the Constitution that holds that the debt of the United States government, lawfully issued, will not be questioned.
Roche postulated that #3, the Constitution, ranks senior to the other laws, so Treasury Secretary Jack Lew and Fed Chair Ben Bernanke would likely choose to violate #2 in order to prevent a global financial meltdown. However, there would be a conversation that would go something like this before it ever happened:
Tsy Sec Jack Lew: "Ben, I'm about to break the law here if we don't do something. Oh, and we're about to crash the global financial system. How about you enact the exigent circumstances clause and just fund our account?"
Fed Chief Ben Bernanke: "Sure, but I want some guarantees that I am not going to be the only one on the hook here for this."
Lew: "Sure thing." [Dials in President Obama]
President Obama: "Hey dudes, how can I help?"
Bernanke: "If I am going to save the world AGAIN, I need some guarantees I won't go to jail this time around. Can you guarantee that?"
Obama: "Of course. Your stock market rally saved my skin on more than one occasion. I'll put you at the top of the pardon list."
Bernanke: "Swell. Oh, and I want lifetime beard groomings also. This thing doesn't keep itself looking this good all by itself."
Obama: "Done."
Lew: "Great, now someone phone down to those clowns on the floor of Congress and inform them that their little games are pointless."
(One point that I think everyone can agree about Ben Bernanke - he is a much snappier dresser than Greenspan.)  Regardless, the point I am trying to make is there is little or no tail risk.


http://www.hutong9.net/home.php? ... o=blog&id=43948


这个启动14 修正案的可能有多少？

landlord

will not be questioned

请，这句怎么理解