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花旗集团全球宏观分析师 Jeremy Hale认为投资者不应临阵退缩。Hale与他的团队认为美国经济增长速度将在2013年上半年与2014年全年加快至3%左右。美国2012年第四财季国内生产总值按年计仅增长0.1%。这意味着美联储可能将在夏季减少每月的资产购买规模。
由于经济在转好，而量化宽松政策将会结束，他认为投资者应该根据这一变化趋势做出战略调整。
他建议投资者卖出美国国债。如果花旗集团对美国经济的预期准确，那么10年期国债收益率将在2013年再次上升50至100个基点，当前收益率为2.06%。
上述形势对美元构成利好，美联储减少资产购买规模将对美元汇率形成支撑。美联储目前每月购买850亿美元国债与抵押债券，并将购买计划与就业市场挂钩。投资者应该做多美元，卖空日元。
近期数据意味着英格兰银行实施经济刺激措施的可能性增强，花旗认为英国金融时报100指数将跑赢欧洲股市。花旗建议投资者做多金融时报100指数，卖空泛欧Stoxx 600指数。
Hale最后建议投资者买进美国股票，他认为美国股市将继续跑赢债市，因为企业继续减持债务、提高股息与股票回购金额。
花旗集团只是另一家让投资者在股市上涨同时买进股票，而不是卖掉股票并锁定利润的华尔街机构美银美林在本周初建议投资者买进日本股票，尽管日本股市在今年已上涨20%左右。标准普尔Capital IQ认为标准普尔500指数会在一年内突破1877点。
S&P 500 could reach 1,877 in a year, a study of aging bull markets suggests
March 12, 2013, 9:57 AM
This bull market is in its golden years, and that’s a good sign for future gains, says S&P Capital IQ strategist Sam Stovall.
The bull market, started at the March 2009 bottom, has just entered its fifth year. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index SPX -0.16% is up almost 130% from the lows and is heading toward a record. The index closed at 1,556.22 on Monday, just 9 points shy of its all-time high in October 2007.
History suggests that having made it this far, there’s a pretty good chance it will keep advancing. “If one makes it to age 65, they have a great chance of making it to age 75. And the same goes for bull markets,” said Stovall in a research note Monday.
But just how far can the S&P 500 advance? If history is an indicator, then Stovall predicts it could rise to 1877 by March 2014, or about 21% from Monday’s levels.
“Should the S&P 500 record a price advance in the coming year that is similar to the average of the prior fifth-year bull markets, and there’s no guarantee it will, the market could advance from Friday’s close of 1551 to 1877 by this time next year,” Stovall wrote.
Four of five bull markets evident since World War II that reached their fifth anniversary — notching an average 21% price increase in their fifth year — extended into a sixth year, according to the research note.
But the path to record highs could be less than straightforward.
“While S&P Capital IQ’s Investment Policy Committee believes the S&P 500 will likely celebrate its fifth birthday in 2014, we believe the S&P 500 is currently overextended and will likely slip into a pullback or correction within the next few months after possibly recording a new all-time high,” Stovall wrote.
– Saumya Vaishampayan |
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