2013，大冲头Ray Dalio 坚定看多。

ctcld

Ray Dalio: Cash Will Move Into 'Stuff' in 2013 Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, spoke with CNBC at Davos about a myriad of topics. Dalio started Bridgewater with $5 million and now manages $130 billion. His Pure Alpha hedge fund ended 2012 up 0.8% though his long-term returns are much more impressive. Cash Will Move Into 'Stuff' The Bridgewater founder thinks 2013 will be a year of transition as cash moves into 'stuff' like goods, services, financial assets (equities, gold, etc). He points out that there's so much cash in the system due to central bank action. Since cash has a negative real return, he argues that it has to go somewhere as risks are being reduced. The desire to hold cash is being reduced. Dalio laid out his framework as essentially a scenario where US investors pile into stocks driving markets higher which will then give the Fed confidence to start to tighten, which will then cause a pullback across risk assets. Bearish on Europe However, he's quite bearish on Europe it seems noting that there's a terrible economy with a gradual restructuring. He says there will be a depression there or a 'lost decade'. Wisdom From Dalio Dalio also had a some fantastic quotes about approaching investing, saying that, "The way to look at any market... is to look at the buyers and sellers and to understand who's buying and who's selling and what the motivations are behind that." He went on to note that, "Too many investors are reactive decision makers... if something has gone up, they say 'ah, that's a good investment,' they don't say 'that's more expensive.' It's the most common mistake in investing. You have to look ahead and say what is the transaction? What will determine the buyer or seller?" Dalio also points out: "So much of the driver of any asset class returns is based on how events actually transpire relative to expectations. So there's a certain discounted growth rate in equities." Lastly, Dalio made an excellent analogy comparing investing to poker: "The bets are zero sum. In order for you to beat me in the game, it's like poker, it's a zero sum game. We have 1,500 people that work at Bridgewater, we spend hundreds of millions of dollars on research, and so on. We've been doing this for 37 years and we don't know that we're going to win. We have to have diversified bets. So it's very important for most people to know when not to make a bet. Because if you're going to come to the poker table, you're going to have to beat me, and you're going to have to beat those who take money. So the nature of investing is that a very small percentage of the people take money essentially in that poker game away from other people who don't know when prices go up whether that means it's a good investment or if it's a more expensive investment." This analogy is not a new concept and there are actually many similarities between poker and investing/trading. Numerous hedge fund managers play poker (like David Einhorn) and we've highlighted the link between hedge fund managers and poker. 


Ray Dalio今年比我们想象的更看多 至少在今年的一月上旬，对冲基金巨头Ray Dalio对于股票和所有风险资产都很看好。 几周前，彭博社和华尔街日报根据一份投资者通话稿件和Bridgewater年度投资者报告，分别报道了Dalio对于2013年市场的宏观看法。 路透社则在研究了Bridgewater的年度投资者报告后发现前两家的报道还不足以体现Dalio对于2013市场的乐观看法，以下是其从报告中摘录的一些评论： “在发达国家，现金是最可怕的资产。” “我们应该卖空所有主要发达国家的现金。” “债券是很差劲的投资，但现金比债券更差。” 从中我们可以看出Dalio是多么厌恶持有现金的行为，至少在他资产总共达到1410亿美元的Pure Alpha 和 All Weather投资组合中。前者去年回报率为0.8%，而后者回报率则为14.7%。 对Dalio来说，现金应该购入股票和其他风险资产——尤其是在联储意在继续尽力压低利率的情况下。 Bridgewater指出：“这些资金在何时进入哪个领域是主宰未来市场变化的重要主题。”Dalio很坚定地认为现在应该是增加风险偏好的时候，他愿意利用杠杆来实现。“借入资金来持有风险资产前所未有的吸引人。” 以上都是Dalio在两个月前的观点，我们不知道他现在是否依旧如此坚定地看好市场。Bridgewater的发言人拒绝了路透发表评论的要求。 但是鉴于标准普尔500指数今年已经上涨了6.2%，Dalio的这些看多观点似乎很正确。至少要比Pershing Square的Bill Ackman和Greenlight的David Einhorn要优秀得多，他们的对冲基金现在远远落后于市场。

newyorker

Too old,  if it is only out now, we suspect the intention.

xiaochong

太老了吧