到底是测得准还是测不准？

ctcld

今天飞机（ML）空投了颗ZHA弹，请看

BofA's proprietary measure of investor sentiment is clocking in at extreme levels.

According to the firm's Bull & Bear Index, which tracks sentiment using indicators like hedge fund market exposure, fund flows, long-only investor positioning and so forth, investors are more bullish than they were in 99% of periods since 2002.

The current B&B reading is 9.6 (on a scale of 0 for max bearish and 10 for max bullish). It suggests investor sentiment is currently more bullish than 99% of all readings since 2002. Extreme bullishness is characterized by robust inflows to EM equity funds, overbought high-yield credit markets relative to treasuries and aggressive hedge fund positions for a weaker yen and stronger oil prices.

BofA

What's even worse. This extreme surge in bullishness comes even as there's been a breakdown of late in the economic data, as measured by the BofA/ML Economic Surprise Index.

BofA

Thus bulls should have reason to worry. Everyone is bullish, and lately he data isn't holding up so hot, relative to expectations.

到底是炸弹还是诈弹？归根到底还是个测得准还是测不准的问题。不过有一点可以从图中看出，在大牛的日子里，惯性很大。
下跌起码要有月余后。

xiaochong

大牛的日子里，惯性很大

BRCBRC

Thanks

DCE

这个指标好像是抛硬币，50/50.

stocktoaster

newyorker

统计的对象可能不同，我看到的所有论坛都是 熊窝，所以高还在后面是一定的。

开小差

lilitulip

Diffusion

cat2011

befriend

silicon_beaver

fat-tail.  

google

这个其实和牛市看超卖，熊市看超买一个道理

fishpet1

thank you very much

Kami

大胆预测一下，这一波冲到月末，然后开始六至八个月的调整，九、十月之后将有一波大涨，剑指1800至2000。

linday

测不准!

You may 测得准 once or twice. You will never 测得准 in the long run!!!!