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先转贴一个抄来的分析。
Here’s Who Gets Cored If Apple’s 10% Decline Carries Into Thursday
By Brendan Conway
“Cored” may be too strong of a word. But if this evening’s 10% drop in Apple’s (AAPL) stock carries over into Thursday, you can bet we’ll be talking about who’s on the receiving end.
Here’s a selection of popular mutual funds with outsized exposure at the latest disclosure, from a handy dandy list compiled a few weeks back by Morningstar’s Dan Culloton. Keep in mind, some of these funds may have shifted since reporting their positions. But I’ll guess if you were an Apple bull last month, you probably were one heading into this week, too.
Huntington Rotating Markets A (HRIAX), 19% Apple
Matthew 25 (MXXVX), 17%
Janus Forty A (JDCAX), 13%
Invesco Constellation A (CSTGX), 12%
While we’re at it, at least the managers of those funds have the ability to sell if they want to. Not true for these passively managed ETFs:
iShares Dow Jones U.S. Technology (IYW), nearly 20%
Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK), 16%
PowerShares QQQ (QQQ), 15%
跟着胡乱说几句。
月线图上迄今连跌四个月,俺觉得下跌的背后是主力在出货。日线和周线上看到的振荡很容易让人忽略月线图上的连续4条阴线。即便以500为支撑的下降三角形没逃过许多人的法眼,可能很多人心理根本不会考虑跌破500的情形。因为AAPL的产品销售依旧强劲,手中一堆现金,中国的移动市场即将全面向AAPL敞开,还有即将面世的iTV。。。
现在500支撑已经在盘后跌破,其后的风险在于,虽然Passively Managed ETF通常不会因为股价波动调整持股的比例,普通的投资基金是采用右侧操作被动跟随市场的方式,股市上升则加仓,股市下降则减仓。今天的盘后暴跌还会促使持有AAPL的基金进一步的减仓,在未来几天形成新一轮的卖压,对抄底和博反弹的小散形成巨大威胁。而主力的操作会利用基金减仓和400-500这段交易量真空区强化卖压,以便在多数人对AAPL丧失信心之后低位承接积累足够的筹码好日后再卷土重来。
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