SPY Seven Consecutive LL

silicon_beaver

SPY has seen seven consecutive LL. What's next?
I calculated its statistcis. Historically, 6 out of 8 events, market bounced green next day (But eventually went lower). 2011 and 1998 were worst case.

heheboy

lilitulip

heheboy

i think bulls are at least safe for next week , with some up days.

bucks

dsp

9号胡同

KK手记

But eventually went higher.

befriend

Thanks.

wowo

N=11 nxt up=1, dn=0;
N=12 nxt up=0, dn=1;
how is that happen?

silicon_beaver

wowo 发表于 2012-10-29 05:06 PM
N=11 nxt up=1, dn=0;
N=12 nxt up=0, dn=1;
how is that happen?

N=11, meaning 11 consecutive LL days;
1 indicating happened once only. and it's up.

ddd

Clearly the six-week long setback was overlapping. An important question to answer is "have we had three swing lows"? If the answer is proven to be "yes", then up we go from here, and new high ahead, before the next setback.

silicon_beaver

After seven consecutive LL, on bad side, if you consider next days (with 5-day spacing), seemed bloody. see below:
10 5-day means 50 days. i.e. after 50 days, statistics says still high chance to see a down market.

silicon_beaver

Update of 10/31/2012 (next 1st day after last Friday. Monday and Tuesday closed due to Storm Sandy)
Yes. it's closed green.

silicon_beaver

Re-calculation (updated with latest Event 10/18 - 10/28 seven consecutive LL)

silicon_beaver

wowo 发表于 2012-10-29 05:06 PM N=11 nxt up=1, dn=0; N=12 nxt up=0, dn=1; how is that happen?

You don’t understand statistics at all. 

This time I won’t’ explain to you anymore. You need to read enough before you comment anything.
Please read the attached SPY chart. The time was 07/25/2011.

hellofriend