不是QE3，不是QE4，是QE3.5

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http://www.marketwatch.com/story ... 9-26?dist=afterbell


据大笨电话里说，如果不见成效，FED将计划QE3.879
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Fed’s next move: QE3.5

By Greg Robb, MarketWatch

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The Federal Reserve’s next move will be to outright buy Treasurys, most likely at its meeting in early December, Fed watchers said Wednesday.

Earlier this month, the Fed launched the third round of asset purchases - an open ended $40 billion per-month of mortgage-backed securities.

The Fed is already buying $45 billion of Treasurys under Operation Twist. But these purchases, which are offset by sales of shorter-term securities, are set to stop at the end of the year.

The move to outright purchases of Treasurys has become conventional wisdom among Fed watchers.

“I think Bernanke more or less told us...they would move to outright buying of Treasurys,” said Mike Moran, chief economist at Daiwa Securities USA.

“Only $40 billion of MBS may not be enough,” agreed Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics.

Uncertainty over the fiscal cliff could alter the start date, he said.

The Fed statement announcing QE3 said it will “undertake additional asset purchases” if the labor market fails to show substantial improvement.

Charles Evans, the president of the Chicago Fed Bank, on Wednesday said he supported adding new bond-buying to make up the difference when Operation Twist ends, according to Reuters.

Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP, agreed, saying the purchases would commence in the first quarter unless there was a “remarkable” turnaround in the labor market.

“We think the FOMC has established $85 billion of combined net purchases as its initial baseline, and would not expect much change in the first quarter if the employment data remain as sluggish as generally anticipated,” Crandall said in a note to clients.

Under his scenario, the Fed would cut the pace of new purchases in half in the third and fourth quarters, bringing the cumulative total to almost $850 billion.

“We don’t advise selling Treasurys ahead of what will undoubtedly become known as QE three-and-a-half,” said Alain Bokobza, the head strategist for Societe Generale in Paris.

U.S. equities have run up 15% since early June in anticipation of the Fed’s decision “and seem tired to us,” Bokobza said in a note to clients.

QE3 is already having a market impact, Moran of Daiwa noted.

He said rates on mortgage-backed securities have fallen by about 60 basis points since the Fed announced QE3. So far, this decline has not translated into lower rates for mortgage originations, he said.

The risk remains that QE will eventually inflate an asset bubble, said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.

“Hopefully policy makers have learned something about how to recognize and prevent one,” he said.

Greg Robb is a senior reporter for MarketWatch in Washington.

ctcld

美联储观察家周三表示，美联储的下一举措将是直接购买国债，这很可能将在12月初的货币政策会议后宣布。

　　美联储在本月初推出了第三轮量化宽松政策，开放式的每月购买400亿美元抵押支持证券。

　　在扭转操作计划中，美联储已经购买了450亿美元国债，但所购买的国债可用卖出短期国债来抵消。扭转操作计划将于今年年底结束。

　　在美联储观察家中，美联储将转向直接购买国债已经变成了一种常识。

　　大和证券美国部门首席经济学家Mike Moran表示，“我认为伯南克已经直接或间接地告诉了我们，他们将会开始直接购买国债。”

　　研究机构资本经济(Capital Economics)首席美国经济学家Paul Ashworth也表示，“每月仅购买400亿美元抵押支持证券是不够的。”

　　他表示，有关财政悬崖的不确定性因素可能会导致直接购买国债的时机提前。

　　美联储在宣布QE3的声明中表示，如果就业市场未能出现显著改善，美联储“将实施更多的资产购买计划”。

　　据路透社报道，芝加哥联储银行行长埃文斯(Charles Evans)周三表示，他支持美联储推出新的国债购买计划来弥补扭转操作计划结束后留下的缺口。

　　Wrightson ICAP首席经济学家Lou Crandall认为国债购买计划将于一季度开始，除非就业市场“突然”转好。

　　Crandall在给客户的一封短信中表示，“我们认为美联储公开市场委员会的初步基线是每月净购买850亿美元资产，这在一季度也不会改变，因为大家普遍预计就业市场届时仍将保持低迷状态。”

　　他认为，美联储将在第三与第四季度将直接国债购买量削减一半，使总购买量达到8500亿美元。

　　法兴银行首席分析师Alain Bokobza表示，“在美联储毫无疑问将推出QE3.5之前，我们不建议投资者卖出国债。”

　　Bokobza向客户表示，美国证券SPX指数自6月初以来已经上涨15%，上涨原因就是因为市场预期美联储将购买国债。

　　大和证券的Moran指出，QE3已经对市场造成冲击。

　　他表示，自美联储宣布QE3以来，抵押支持证券收益率已经下降了60基点，但目前还没有令抵押贷款利率下降。

　　BMO资本市场资深经济学家Sal Guatieri表示，“风险在于量化宽松政策最终会吹大资产泡沫。希望政策制定者学会如何识别并阻止泡沫的形成。”

bububaba

他印钱, 他发债, 他买债

早晚玩死.

柳言

日本第二了。

silicon_beaver

QE3.4, QE3.5, QE3.6, , ,