06/26 - 06/27 DT

greenback

Nice to come back to HT9 again!  It turns out the time right after a trip is even tighter than that on the road. Finally find some free time to watch the market. Let's start from bonds:

Both ZB and ZN are forming triangle after breaking down from the uptrend lines twice. So bond traders are in a wait and see mode. On the one hand, the US economy won't get off the cliff, but on the other hand, the EURO crisis is still clear and present. You can also say that the bonds are now in a trading range.

greenback

Now GOLD and CRUDE. Both patterns are bearish.

GOLD is walking a large triangle and the last push up got decisively knocked back. It appears that there is a better consensus on the upper downtrend line of the triangle, while the lower uptrend line of the triangle is not well defined. My reading is that there are more GOLD traders who know when to short than those who know when to cover/buy dip. For the very short term, we need to watch the down trend line to assess its strength.

CRUDE is forming a another triangle. Oh mine, let's hope this would be the last push down. Note the last call for the previous triangle breakdown was fulfilled nicely.

胡同儿串子

welcome back!

greenback

I don't have much feeling about EURO ... looks bearish. The next two levels are labeled red.

JPY is interesting. I think I have a clearer feeling on what the traders are doing:
1. First it's time to accept that the trend has finally changed to the weak for the JPY: USD/JPY has seen three higher lows and one higher high.
2. The yellow trend lines are so far nicely followed.
3. It's right below the BOJ intervention pink line.

The trading plan is to trade a break out of this pink line. If it does, I expect the previous level at 80.5 to be revisited again, and that would be the profit target. The stop loss would be today's low at 79.2. This should be big enough reward/risk ratio as a reasonable trade.

Note also that THIS IS A SWING TRADE so you should just use one contract if you want to use the super large leverage of 6J.

greenback

Nothing much to say about stocks ... NQ is apparently stronger: still in the channel. ES is backtesting the channel lower bound. Let's see where this up leg will stop first to assess their strength.

greenback

Finally, I have something extra to show to the stock bulls.

If you still believe in AUD as a representative for risky assesses ... you may be pleased to see that it's rebounding much stronger than ES. It only retraced 38.2% from the immediate previous high ... very healthy pullback.

greenback

See you all tonight! I should be able to have another update with hourly charts starting today ...

Jennyahwu

回复 greenback 的帖子

I remember green da said 74+ for CL??

chickencoop

silicon_beaver

ES Intraday 60-min chart, MACD shows ND.

greenback

Jennyahwu 发表于 2012-6-26 19:51
回复 greenback 的帖子

I remember green da said 74+ for CL??

I really hope not this time ... of course it can go there if European leaders can't deliver what the market wants ...

jlht

greenback

Updates only on the stock indices. Nothing else worth repeating.
Indeed, stock indices look like in the process of forming a higher low ...

greenback

greenback 发表于 2012-6-27 02:29
Updates only on the stock indices. Nothing else worth repeating.
Indeed, stock indices look like in ...

In retrospect, the rising wedge in ES was indeed very bearish and led to last few day's pullback ...

azure4068

above 1320 long mode
below 1320 short mode

hard to say now.

kdkboy

Any one dare to short oil?  break up upper BB, seem more up

greenback

Updates on stocks ...
Bulls are gaining momentum ... the uptrend line is broken! Breakout of the bear flag ...

greenback

kdkboy 发表于 2012-6-27 09:50
Any one dare to short oil?  break up upper BB, seem more up

Too early. Wait for its action when reaching the uptrend line, and 81 first ...

greenback

First attempt to break out in GOLD is being rejected ...

azure4068

起来挺早啊，绿老大～～