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发表于 2012-1-29 08:34 AM
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A word of warning of pinning too much hopes on mining models generated: the various models you are using from commercial off the shelf packages (be it SQL Mining Services or SAS Miners) have already been done to death. One of the most peculiar aspect of financial markets (which I should not have to tell you about since you are a finance major) is that market undergoes paradigm shift continuously - that is, what works for a while, will certainly stop working in the future. Data mining models either tend to overfit the data, and/or would provide a strategy too late in the piece to be of much use before shifting the sands again. Remember that LTCM used models created by Nobel Prize winners in Economics and rocket scientists. While it made money for a while, it eventually went bust, almost taking the whole financial system with it. The same can be said of Bear Stearns and Leahman Brothers. Just remember this, the large IBs have already hired the smartest and best rocket scientists to build their models. |
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