本帖最后由 ddd 于 2011-10-14 13:48 编辑
ES 1230 is in a striking distance now. This is a major line of sand bears will have to defend. Any positive news out of Europe though could gap it over and could trigger a major short squeeze. So bears better pray for an Island Reversal in VIX daily to turn the tide around.
Financial is a little lagging, and that's about the only negative on the market this week. But the overall bullishness is undeniable. If you are long hold you positions tight for a potential wonderful ride. However, it's risky to initiate long positions at this point, unless / until a decisive breakthrough over the 1230 level.
If we have a continued rally in the coming weeks, I don't expect this market to take off to a new yearly high without a significant correction (correction but not reversal) first. This level is likely to be retested before year end, if not sooner. Earnings so far is not too worrisome. Perhaps a real European country default would cause the necessary impact.
Finally, if your FA / PA or TA goes against this rally, blame it on the bears. As I've pointed out today at the intraday discussions, I think the rally so far is largely caused by short covering, either by their actions or by stops being taken. Most investors haven't found opportunities to participate or haven't believed in this reversal at this point. The next leg up, if bears failed from here, will be fueled by a potentially massive short squeeze. The final leg up will be fueled by bulls coming late to the party. I'm still wishing for an adjustment below 1230.
So although I'm very hopeful to see a continued rally, or a second leg up after a short setback, I will be careful with the third leg up if there is one.
注：A short setback here = a consecutive LL and LH for >= 2 days, or > 23.6% adjustment. |
狗仔卡
发表于 2011-10-14 03:56 PM
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发表于 2011-10-14 04:08 PM
发表于 2011-10-14 09:40 PM
