09/15/2011 Market Outlook (One down day at most until FOMC?)

Cobra · 发表于 2011-9-15 07:12 PM

SHORT-TERM: WE MIGHT HAVE ONLY ONE DOWN DAY UNTIL FOMC

大方向，今天由于在tinted area宽度标示的时间内没有涨过tinted area高度标示的幅度，再次证明这一轮反弹还是比前两次弱（a > a’, b < b’, time spent on B < time spent on C），因此我还是维持这仅仅是个反弹的判断。下面的图是更新后的evil plan，大体思路是：这是个3 push up反弹，最后一个反弹应该是最弱的，但是如果decisive breakout红线的话，那么多半熊熊就彻底歇菜了。

下面的图解释了我对以上evil plan所做的修正，因为我注意到一个非常有趣的现象，从重要底部的反弹，往往会持续至少7天，其中最多只会跌1天。到现在为止大盘已经涨了4天，加上3天以及1到2天的误差，正好是Sep 21 FOMC附近，所以最后关于短期的结论如下：

至少会涨到Sep 21 FOMC。
这期间，大盘可能最多只会跌1天。顺便说，如果这期间大盘下跌超过1天，怎么办？靠，那不就更证明我说的这仅仅是个反弹吗？笨啊，你。
Target SPX 1230，因为B = C。

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET IS 1,000, THE CORRECTION COULD LAST 1 TO 2 MONTHS

See 08/19 Market Outlook for details.

SEASONALITY: BULLISH FRIDAY

According Stock Trader’s Almanac, September Triple Witching, Dow up 6 straight and 7 of last 8.

See 09/02 Market Outlook for September seasonality.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY PUBLIC CHART LIST:

	TREND	MOMENTUM	COMMENT
Long-term	3 of 3 SELL
Intermediate	4 of 5 BUY	4 of 5 NEUTRAL	Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode.
Short-term	UP	6 of 6 NEUTRAL

	TREND	COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly	DOWN
IWM & Weekly	DOWN
SSEC & Weekly	DOWN	4.1.4 Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (Weekly): Long term support broken.
XIU & Weekly	DOWN
DAX & Weekly	DOWN
TLT & Weekly	UP
UUP & Weekly	UP	Breakout of long time consolidation area, not confirmed thought, but be careful.
GLD & Weekly	UP
USO & Weekly	DOWN

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

bucks · 发表于 2011-9-15 07:12 PM

bucks · 发表于 2011-9-15 07:13 PM

bucks · 发表于 2011-9-15 07:13 PM

grab one more seat

bucks · 发表于 2011-9-15 07:13 PM

nanosensor · 发表于 2011-9-15 07:16 PM

Thanks

farmer01 · 发表于 2011-9-15 07:17 PM

Diver · 发表于 2011-9-15 07:18 PM

oldfox · 发表于 2011-9-15 07:18 PM

浪淘金 · 发表于 2011-9-15 07:20 PM

开小差 · 发表于 2011-9-15 07:21 PM

thx, ding

bucks · 发表于 2011-9-15 07:21 PM

昨天放了个哑炮，but, FYI, gap up (>0.3%) for 4 days in a row only occurred twice in last 2000 trading days (13 cases for gap down though), so, will we be lucky again tomorrow morning?

q13117 · 发表于 2011-9-15 07:22 PM

thank you ....

美眉妹 · 发表于 2011-9-15 07:23 PM

trueself · 发表于 2011-9-15 07:26 PM

Jinan90 · 发表于 2011-9-15 07:30 PM

Fan8an · 发表于 2011-9-15 07:31 PM

navybean · 发表于 2011-9-15 07:35 PM

Thanks

hunting · 发表于 2011-9-15 07:37 PM

看来真的是一个大熊旗，，

MFTHT · 发表于 2011-9-15 07:42 PM

本帖最后由 MFTHT 于 2011-9-15 20:43 编辑

如果明天跌，牛就歇菜了。

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[技术分析] 09/15/2011 Market Outlook (One down day at most until FOMC?)

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