09/06/2011 Market Outlook (Bear Flag?)

Cobra

SHORT-TERM: MORE PULLBACK AHEAD

今天从开盘涨到收盘，感觉很牛，不过大方向看着仅仅是Bear Flag而已，所以我认为还有的跌。当然，我还没有充分的证据可以排除下图中3 push up的走法（我应该基本否决了YES WE CAN的走法，详见，09/02 Market Outlook）。

 

下面的图是我更倾向于Bear Flag的主要原因，还是惯性定律，向前加速的汽车，不经过减速是不可能突然向后倒退的。RSI的new low就表示目前还是向下加速的的过程，因此the low was in的可能性很小。

 

今天比较特别的地方是SPY跌了0.7%，但是散户很牛，买了很多call，造成ISEE Equities Only Index高达233。下面的图，highlighted in red，是自ISEE Equities Only Index有史以来（2005年），所有类似今天的情况，大家可以看看都是在啥位置。反正我是看，明天lower low的可能性很高（只有一次例外），此外，没有一例是the bottom的，既使此后有反弹，最终都是要掉下来的。

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET  IS 1,000, THE CORRECTION COULD LAST 1 TO 2 MONTHS

See 08/19 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH SEPTEMBER

See 09/02 Market Outlook for September seasonality.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 3 of 3 SELL Intermediate 4 of 5 BUY 5 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term DOWN 6 of 6 NEUTRAL

TREND COMMENT QQQ & Weekly DOWN   IWM & Weekly DOWN   SSEC & Weekly DOWN 4.1.4 Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index (Weekly): Long term support broken. XIU & Weekly DOWN DAX & Weekly DOWN   TLT & Weekly UP   UUP & Weekly DOWN GLD & Weekly UP   USO & Weekly DOWN

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

jcw

jcw

jcw

jcw

jcw

jcw

謝謝老大

IMeMyself

q13117

Thank you and good night ....

everest001

fighton

aimei

当时惘然

n748

market is bullish today. Unexpected. Added some long position at the close. Seems it will be under water tomorrow.

mayoutu

蛇大觉得我说的红空心棒没啥意义？

JohnHsu

Fan8an

coexist

大牛Steve

NewMember

Thank you!