从 Dow Jones 82年大图看股市

BBP1127 · 发表于 2011-8-13 03:01 PM

本帖最后由 BBP1127 于 2011-8-14 00:09 编辑

My conclusion

1. Market always goes up in long term
2. There appears to have 17 year cycle alternating between super bull period and super consolidation (bear) period since the end of World War II.
3. Currently we are 11 years in a super consolidation period starting from 2000. I expect another 5-6 more years to end this cycle and start another super bull phase.
4. We are more like in 1974 (bear market in consolidation phase) than in 1987 or 1998 (bear market in bull phase).
5. The best strategy is to stay out of market for the next 3-4 years until market reaches the low range of this consolidation period.

dzyx · 发表于 2011-8-13 03:09 PM

“5. The best strategy is to stay out of market for the next 3-4 years until market reaches the low range of this consolidation period.”

为什么？

acoust · 发表于 2011-8-13 03:51 PM

BBP1127 · 发表于 2011-8-13 03:53 PM

本帖最后由 BBP1127 于 2011-8-13 16:55 编辑

回复 dzyx 的帖子

The upside potential is limited at this point while downside risk is huge. If you wait to buy at the low end of this range, your risk/reward profile will be very good. The market is going down from here if history can tell us anything.

contr · 发表于 2011-8-13 04:02 PM

ut1984 · 发表于 2011-8-13 05:01 PM

风清扬 · 发表于 2011-8-13 05:12 PM

navybean · 发表于 2011-8-13 06:36 PM

Thanks

gummykitty · 发表于 2011-8-13 07:32 PM

好图，多谢

dzyx · 发表于 2011-8-13 07:48 PM

回复 BBP1127 的帖子

怪我没问清楚。我的意思是“人生有几个3-4年”？ 3-4年后的预测是否准确？如果错了怎办？再等？

wnd4 · 发表于 2011-8-13 08:21 PM

wyjhyd · 发表于 2011-8-13 10:26 PM

得, 不用抄了

sandera · 发表于 2011-8-13 11:50 PM

hutong123 · 发表于 2011-8-14 10:14 AM

n748 · 发表于 2011-8-14 08:03 PM

IF THE TREND IS DOWN THEN TRADE IT THAT WAY, NO NEED TO STAY OUT OF MARKET

sc168 · 发表于 2011-8-14 08:29 PM

umqasr · 发表于 2011-8-15 08:25 PM

Ave · 发表于 2011-8-15 08:59 PM

plankton · 发表于 2011-8-16 04:35 PM

how many 16 year periods one has in his life?

and if that 16 year period happens to be his best money earning period (age 30 - 46), can he still retire at 60?

sc168 · 发表于 2011-8-16 08:09 PM

Time to buy Gold/bond.

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[基础分析] 从 Dow Jones 82年大图看股市

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