08/10/2011 Market Outlook (Diamond Bottom with Positive Money Flows)

Cobra

SHORT-TERM: IN WAIT AND SEE MODE

今天没有什么新的说法，SPY 60 min chart上可能整了个Diamond Bottom， 但这种pattern，虽然叫做bottom，其实有一半的机会意味着continuation，因此还得等到确实突破了，才能知道方向。我的猜测是，大盘可能会在目前的位置盘整一段时间，形成Bear Flag或者Rectangle，然后继续向下。

 

其他没啥说的，两个很特别的地方值得注意，我猜，很大可能意味着明天高开且收绿。

• 昨天虽然涨了很多，但money flows却负的很厉害，结果今天大跌，那么今天虽然跌了很多，但是money flow却正的很厉害，是不是意味着明天大涨呢？

 

• 下跌2%以上，但TICK却收于0以上，这样的情况极少极少，自2008年以来，只有过两例类似的例子，一个第二天涨了，一个第二天跌了，所以目前我还没看出来这样的日子说明什么。先记在这里，很快就知道这意味着什么了。

 

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: CONCEPT ONLY, THE WORSE CASE SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET  IS 1,000

See 08/05 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH FIRST 9 TRADING DAYS OF AUGUST

See 07/29 Market Outlook for more details. Also please see 07/29 Market Outlook for day to day August seasonality chart.

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

• 08/04 Market Outlook: Relief rally could be within 3 trading days.

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

• 08/01 Market Outlook, 08/02 Market Outlook, 08/05 Market Outlook, 08/08 Market Outlook: Rebound, if any, is sell.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 3 SELL Intermediate 5 of 5 SELL 3 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in SELL mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode. Short-term DOWN 5 of 6 NEUTRAL

TREND COMMENT QQQ & Weekly DOWN Triple Top breakdown, targeting Oct lows. IWM & Weekly DOWN   SSEC & Weekly DOWN   EEM & Weekly DOWN   XIU & Weekly DOWN   DAX & Weekly DOWN   TLT & Weekly UP   UUP & Weekly DOWN GLD & Weekly UP   USO & Weekly DOWN   XLE & Weekly DOWN 4.4.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Weekly): BPENER oversold. XLF & Weekly DOWN 4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Breakdown long term support! IYR & Weekly DOWN   XLB & Weekly DOWN

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

donalan

1st?

RedCedar

2nd

hometh

3rd

songjiang

2nd! Thanks!

葡萄柚

这么volatile 的市场真是挺锻炼人的， 主要是学习了怎样忍住不抄底。

chujingluyou

Third!

triestino

jcs

vicvic

n748

回复 Cobra 的帖子

How about applying your n vs n rule, since today's drop completely swollowed yesterday's gain so it's bearish. Therefore, Market continue to drop?

I hope it goes up though since I reloaded my 401K today.

try_again

Thanks

sycamores

Bigmouth

acoust

First page,

lilitulip

thanks a lot

jy1029

Bencat

cc2265

goldbug

125