08/09/2011 Market Outlook (Major Accumulation Day after Major Distribution Day)

Cobra · 发表于 2011-8-9 05:56 PM

SHORT-TERM: EXPECT THE REBOUND TO FAIL EVENTUALLY

维持反弹最终会失败的判断，理由在08/02 Market Outlook, 08/05 Market Outlook and 08/08 Market Outlook里给了很多，这里就不再重复了。当然市场总是对的，因此我随时准备认错，下面的图是一个简单的判断low是否in的办法，一般从重要底部的反弹，7天内至少涨6天，所以明天如果又是大涨特涨的话，可能熊熊要做好low was in的准备。

那么明天会不会大涨特涨呢？目前看，可能性不大。今天的Trading Signals里提到了，由于VIX跌了18%+，所以明天很大几率会收红。此外，昨天是Major Distribution Day，今天紧接着就是Major Accumulation Day，这种情况出现的时候，一般第二天也是收红，我特意放到晚上的报告来讲的原因是，这种情况也意味着多半今天的low还是会被测试的。

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: CONCEPT ONLY, THE WORSE CASE SPX DOWNSIDE TARGET IS 1,000

See 08/05 Market Outlook for more details.

SEASONALITY: BEARISH FIRST 9 TRADING DAYS OF AUGUST

See 07/29 Market Outlook for more details. Also please see 07/29 Market Outlook for day to day August seasonality chart.

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

~~08/04 Market Outlook: Relief rally could be within 3 trading days.~~

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

~~08/01 Market Outlook~~, 08/02 Market Outlook, 08/05 Market Outlook, 08/08 Market Outlook: Rebound, if any, is sell.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY PUBLIC CHART LIST:

	TREND	MOMENTUM	COMMENT
Long-term	2 of 3 SELL
Intermediate	5 of 5 SELL	3 of 5 NEUTRAL	Cobra Impulse in SELL mode; Non-Stop in SELL mode.
Short-term	DOWN	5 of 6 *NEUTRAL

	TREND	COMMENT
QQQ & Weekly	DOWN	Triple Top breakdown, targeting Oct lows.
IWM & Weekly	DOWN
SSEC & Weekly	DOWN
EEM & Weekly	DOWN
XIU & Weekly	DOWN	1.5.9 TSE McClellan Oscillator: Oversold.
DAX & Weekly	DOWN
TLT & Weekly	UP
UUP & Weekly	DOWN
GLD & Weekly	UP
USO & Weekly	DOWN
XLE & Weekly	DOWN	4.4.1 Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE Weekly): BPENER oversold.
XLF & Weekly	DOWN	4.4.2 Financials Select Sector SPDR (XLF Weekly): Breakdown long term support!
IYR & Weekly	DOWN
XLB & Weekly	DOWN

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list.
UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered.
DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

NZX · 发表于 2011-8-9 05:56 PM

NZX · 发表于 2011-8-9 05:57 PM

NZX · 发表于 2011-8-9 05:57 PM

NZX · 发表于 2011-8-9 05:57 PM

NZX · 发表于 2011-8-9 05:58 PM

NZX · 发表于 2011-8-9 05:58 PM

人呢，都在数钱吗？

NZX · 发表于 2011-8-9 05:59 PM

NZX · 发表于 2011-8-9 05:59 PM

Im168 · 发表于 2011-8-9 06:00 PM

老大V5

NZX · 发表于 2011-8-9 06:00 PM

当时惘然 · 发表于 2011-8-9 06:00 PM

dbshjb · 发表于 2011-8-9 06:03 PM

hu86390216 · 发表于 2011-8-9 06:05 PM

nanosensor · 发表于 2011-8-9 06:05 PM

Thanks

brcm · 发表于 2011-8-9 06:06 PM

老蛇的智慧照亮了整个胡同.......

goldbug · 发表于 2011-8-9 06:09 PM

sexydaytrader · 发表于 2011-8-9 06:10 PM

Jinan90 · 发表于 2011-8-9 06:11 PM

谢谢。如此及时地更新

vanmark · 发表于 2011-8-9 06:11 PM

今天的low被测试？不是明天吧？那样也太吓人了

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[技术分析] 08/09/2011 Market Outlook (Major Accumulation Day after Major Distribution Day)

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