07/01 Market Outlook (More up but be ready for a big pullback)

Cobra

SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE PULLBACK AS EARLY AS THE NEXT TUESDAY

首先，for fun only，下面是一种比较熊evil plan，我的猜测是可能重复2007年，从本周的strong push up看，去新高的可能性很大，因此熊熊只能寄希望于3 push up pattern。这里再强调一遍，我不在乎是熊还是牛，反正如果是牛的话，至少要先排除了熊的pattern才行，对吧？所以我一般只要猜测最坏的情况就好了。另外，下图是仅仅示意方向，具体的时间价位并不反映我的预测。

 

好了，有了上面的图，下面理解我的报告就简单了。四点说明：

1. 周五的high不是the high，还有higher high。
2. Market有点超买了，因此pullback只是时间问题，而且幅度不会小。
3. 七月牛。(See Intermediate-term Session below)
4. 操作上，pullback，如果有的话，是buy。

为什么说周五的high不是the high？

• 因为周五是Major Accumulation Day (NYSE Up Volume : NYSE Down Volume >= 9)，还从来没有Major Accumulation Day是exactly top的情形。

 

• 周五的Trading Signals提到NYADV MA(5) extremely high，虽然意味着下周二会跌，但是也说明up momentum strong，因此基本上guarantee a new high ahead。

 

为什么说pullback的幅度不会小？

• 因为NYMO太高了。

 

• 另一个理由是RSI on SPX 60 min chart太高了。下面的图虽然从长远的历史看，只有50%的机会有大回调，但是考虑到最近的几个case都是大回调，加上前面提到的NYMO too high的问题，因此我觉得这应该可以作为要有大回调的理由。

 

至于短期有点超买的理由，不用多说了，是个人都知道超买了，下面仅仅列出几个可信度比较高的理由。

• T2122，这个是我看overbought/oversold的终极武器。以前解释过，虽然不够historically extreme，但是对于指数在高位的情况，目前这么高的读数已经算是extremem了。

 

• T2103，这个其实类似NYADV，只不过看着比NYADV更吓人，所以才单独列出来。

 

• NYADV。

 

• 周五的棒棒，非常像是exhaustion bar。

 

• SPX 110% above BB top since year 2003。

 

• 最后不要忘了周五的Trading Signals里提到的TICK，NYADV MA(5) and Price Volume Negative Divergence，都是短期不利于牛牛的东东。

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: BULLISH JULY

统计数据加上七月的bullish seasonality，目前看，中期前景不错。

• 下面关于VIX weekly跌24%+的统计是我的主要依据，因此从图上看（红棒棒），VIX weekly这么大跌幅，往往意味着the bottom，所以后市可期。

 

• 下面的两个统计来自Bespoke，也是说七月份bullish。其中A/D Line从oversold迅速反转成overbought是可信度非常高的牛信号。

 

SEASONALITY: BULLISH JULY

The following July seasonality chart is from Bespoke.

 

The following day by day July seasonality chart is from Sentimentrader.

 

ACTIVE BULLISH OUTLOOKS:

• 09/27 Market Recap: 9 POMO within 20 trading days means 14%+ up in 3 months.
• 07/01 Market Outlook: Bullish July.

ACTIVE BEARISH OUTLOOKS:

• 07/01 Market Outlook: Market is a little overbought, could see pullback soon.

SUMMARY OF SIGNALS FOR MY  PUBLIC CHART LIST: 

TREND MOMENTUM COMMENT Long-term 2 of 2 BUY Intermediate 4 of 5 BUY 4 of 5 NEUTRAL Cobra Impulse in BUY mode; Non-Stop in BUY mode. Short-term 4 of 6 *OVERBOUGHT

TREND COMMENT QQQ & Weekly *UP *NAMO and NAADV MA(10) overbought. IWM & Weekly *UP SSEC & Weekly DOWN   EEM & Weekly *UP XIU & Weekly DOWN Double Top, target $17.69. DAX & Weekly *UP TLT & Weekly *DOWN   UUP & Weekly *DOWN Double Top, target $20.86. GLD & Weekly *DOWN Double Top, target $142.52.  USO & Weekly DOWN   XLE & Weekly *UP   XLF & Weekly *UP IYR & Weekly *UP   XLB & Weekly *UP

* = New update; Blue Text = Link to a chart in my public chart list. UP = Intermediate-term uptrend. Set when weekly buy signal is triggered. DOWN = Intermediate-term downtrend. Set when weekly sell signal is triggered.

temujin

Thanks!

nanosensor

Thanks

azzz

coolboy

jy1029

Thanks

福多多

ctcld

skipjack

trader88

大过节的，今天报告真早，老蛇辛苦了。

everest001

开小差

thx, ding

cartier

大牛Steve

hotday

wai-po

thanks

maldini

lilitulip

thanks a lot

lilitulip

Cobra 发表于 2011-7-2 21:35
SHORT-TERM: COULD SEE PULLBACK AS EARLY AS THE NEXT TUESDAY

首先，for fun only，下面是一种比较熊e ...

Hi cobra, it is 1% above BB up, why 110%? also, when you said pull back is big, how big do you expect, something like 5%?

Cobra

lilitulip 发表于 2011-7-2 22:33
Hi cobra, it is 1% above BB up, why 110%? also, when you said pull back is big, how big do you exp ...

not 5%, 1 to 2%? 5% would mean retest the low.

Not 1% above BB top, it's %B, equal to top is 100% or 1, now the reading is 1.1+ so should be 110% or 1.1, understood?